Who Will Make the Next Breakthrough in Mens Tennis

2011 was an incredible year for mens tennis, primarily due to one player – Novak Djokovic. Djokovic won 3 major titles and went on a 43 match win streak between January and June claiming the Australian Open, Dubai, Indian Wells, Miami, Madrid and Rome, an incredible feat. Djokovic also went on to win Wimbledon and the US Open. But what Djokovic managed to do was break the cosy monopoly of Federer and Nadal at the top of mens tennis. Now that Djokovic has shown that it can be done, the question must be, who will be next to make the big breakthrough and can it happen in 2012.

Andy Murray is the player most pundits, fans and bookmakers are looking at to be the next player to win a major title. Murray has been to three major finals so far but has yet to win a set in any of those matches. A lot of people point to Ivan Lendl and Andre Agassi as players who suffered similar results in their first few finals but both those guys had 5 set final losses, at the French Open, Lendl in 1981 to Bjorn Borg and Agassi in 1991 to Jim Courier. Therefore, you have to come to the conclusion that Murray is actually overwhelmed in major finals; and is not able to play his game or impose himself on his opponent.

That’s partly the reason as Murray’s style of play is also a contributing factor to his lack of major success. Murray is a counterpuncher by nature but to win a title match you have to do more than hope for your opponent to miss. That is precisely the reason why Murray hasn’t been able to claim a set in any of his finals. Other players who can be counted as counter punchers have learned their lesson well. Both Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic have added aggressive strategies to their game to complement their defensive skills, making them formidable opponents on the generally slower surfaces in the professional game today.

Andy Murray has been content to surround himself with guys who do not want to rock the boat and say what was needed to be said, that is evidenced by Murray’s attitude to his camp during matches. Miles McClaghan is a good coach but in any of his interviews pre and post Murray, McClaghan gives the impression that Murray is more or less the finished article and just needs minor adjustments. I happen to think Murray needs major adjustments, adjustments in his mentality and his game plan.

And Murray has acknowledged that by hiring Ivan Lendl as coach. A brave decision in my view, some argue that they won’t get on and it won’t work as a partnership but I hope it does and I am sure it will. Murray will have instant respect for Lendl due to his standing in the game and Lendl’s achievements. Also, Lendl knows what it is like lose many major finals before claiming one and what needs to be done to get another opportunity. Lendl can show Murray discipline and how to impose his game on his opponent. Murray’s forehand has often appeared a liability and I also think Murray relies too much on his 1st serve; his form has declined badly if he doesn’t get his 1st serve in consistently. What Lendl will impress on Murray is to have a good game and strategy behind his 2nd serve. When Murray puts in a 2nd serve, what type of serve will it be and will it be designed to win points or just get it in and hope for the best.

This is really an indication of how mentality and skill is intertwined. You have to have the skill to construct winning points behind 2nd serves against top returners, but also the courage to play like that in pressure situations. If Lendl can instil the mentality to be more courageous in pressure moments, Murray could and should make a big breakthrough in 2012 with his 1st major championship, hopefully for him at the Australian Open where he already has an excellent record as twice losing finalist.

Joe Wilfred Tsonga could not be more different to Andy Murray in terms of attitude and temperament. Tsonga is a real showman on the court, and by all accounts quite shy off the court.

Tsonga is a great talent for sure, I first saw him play in 2007 at Wimbledon in the 3rd round where he comprehensively outplayed Feliciano Lopez to win in straight sets. I knew that day he was going to become a top player and that has proved to be the case. In 2008 Tsonga lost to Djokovic in the final of the Australian Open after taking the first set. Tsonga hasn’t quite hit the heights since then which is a bit of a surprise, mainly due to injuries and inconsistency.

Tsonga has shown he can live with the big boys by taking Federer out at the quarterfinal stage in 2011 Wimbledon. Tsonga also got to the final of the ATP World Tour finals, losing to Federer in a thrilling final. Tsonga has the game to blow his opponents away, especially when he gets inspired. However, Tsonga’s biggest challenge is playing at a consistent level throughout a five set match without having too many ups and downs. I like the way Tsonga goes for his shots when the pressure is on, what Tsonga has to ensure is that he makes those shots at key moments and not miss them, that’s the fine line Tsonga is walking. If Tsonga can get that consistency under pressure, he has the skill and power to defeat the best players in the world and claim a major title. What better place than Wimbledon? Tsonga has the perfect game for grass.

If we think of other players that can make a breakthrough, or at least re-establish themselves, then Juan Martin Del Potro would be a good candidate. Del Potro had a great 2009, getting to the semifinal of the French Open, where he held a two sets to one lead against Federer before losing. Del Porto returned the favour, coming from behind to beat Federer in the US Open final, his only major title to date. Del Potro also got to the final of the ATP World Tour finals, losing to Nikolay Davydenko.

Del Potro has suffered a nasty wrist injury and was out of the game for virtually 12 months, returning in early 2011. It’s fair to say that Del Potro is struggling to get back to top 5 status, which is understandable. Del Porto is a great shotmaker with an incredible forehand and good movement for a tall guy. And that’s where I feel Del Potro has a problem, almost all top players who are 6ft 4 inches plus ( 1 metre 96cm) have had serious injuries - Todd Martin, Richard Krajicek, Robin Soderling, Mario Ancic, Goran Ivanisevic all suffered long term injuries. In tennis, there seems to be a threshold that players over a certain height are more injury prone. Also, the way Del Porto hits the forehand, i.e. the technique he uses; he is vulnerable to a recurrence of his wrist injury.

If Del Porto can stay injury free and recover his self belief and movement, he’s a threat because he’s already proven he’s a champion and has the mentality to beat the best players in the biggest matches. Mentality and self belief is as important as talent at the highest level.

There are not too many other players who will be seen as potential major winners, other than two more tall guys, namely Milos Raonic and Tomas Berdych. Raonic is an exciting young player from Canada with an incredible serve. Raonic is 6ft 5 inches tall, and already has suffered a lot of injuries. 2012 may be too early for Raonic as he is a raw talent, but a player to watch for the future, especially on grass. Berdych has the talent to win a major and reached the 2010 Wimbledon final. Berdych probably requires a bit more self belief and a bit of luck at this stage, but he’s a threat at the majors and shouldn’t be discounted in 2012.