Stanislas Wawrinka's Example

Stan Wawrinka wins Monte Carlo

Mens Tennis has finally had the shake-up we’ve been looking for some time.  And it all started in January when Stanislau Wawrinka beat Novak Djokovic, Thomas Berdych and Rafael Nadal to win the Australian Open.

Since then Warwinka has backed up that win with his first masters title in Monte Carlo where he came from a set down to beat Roger Federer, whilst maintaining his new Swiss number 1 status; a feat probably considered impossible two years ago.  And to cap it all, Wawrinka has helped Switzerland to the Davis cup semifinal for the first time in living memory.

This success has added a different dimension to mens tennis this year and really shaken things up.  But the question is, where has this success come from and what are the implications for other established top 10 players who have been around for so long.

Well the remarkable thing about Warwinka is, he wasn’t even a top 10 player for many years.  Now 28 years old, by this stage most players’ careers are winding down if they haven’t made any significant impact in the game; however, Warwinka has been steadily improving since 2012.  Up until then, his ranking often hovered somewhere in the top 30.   He would invariably be involved in memorable five set grand slam matches against players like Andy Murray and Richard Gasquet.  In the 2013 Australian Open, he ran Djokovic close in a five hour marathon, but couldn’t pull off the shock result.  And then later that year had a two sets to one lead against Djokovic in the US open semifinal but came up short again.  This time, he was able to turn the tables on Djokovic at the quarterfinal stage of the 2014 Australian Open, his inner belief coming through and Djokovic eventually cracking. Warwinka has had the inevitable dodgy results since the magnitude of winning his first grand slam tournament at the age of 28 but is now back in form after winning Monte Carlo.

So, why is Wawrinka’s rise to number 3 in the world so significant? 

It shows something we haven’t seen for years, a player who can rise quickly up the rankings and make a significant dent by beating the top players consistently.  It has long been said that in terms of the tennis ranking, there is not much difference between players ranked in the top 10 and players ranked 100.  The main difference being mental focus and desire to get to the next level as well as remaining relatively healthy.  In the womens game, Angelique Kerber has not won a major tournament yet but is proof that you can rise from 100 in the world to top 10 and stay there for a period of time. 

And of course it has been great for tennis to have four players who have dominated the game over a five year period, not seen since the days of Lendl, Becker, Edberg and Wilander in the late 1980s.  But in other ways it has certainly become predictable as the public didn’t know very well the rest of the top 10 and what those ranking positions were.  In fact, there were times I would see the rankings and see players in the top 10 who have made no real impression on the tour.  We also have to take into account the points differential.  Over the last 15 years the points for winning major and masters tournaments have gone up dramatically, making it almost impossible to get to top 5 if you haven’t won a major tournament or make a series of finals such as Andy Murray did before winning one.

There are players below top 5 who are well known to the public, such as Joe Wilfried Tsonga and Thomas Berdych.  Unfortunately for these guys, more often than not they have come up short in the big matches against the big 4, if they beat one guy, another was waiting to take them out.  Not surprisingly their confidence has taken a blow and you start to wonder whether they will be able to triumph in a grand slam tournament. 

This is what has made Wawrinka’s rise so impressive.  He was not a consistent top 10 player until 2013 when he qualified for the end of season ATP World Tour finals, but he was certainly in the bracket of the likes of Tsonga and Berdych, he would give the big boys a good game, but come up short more often than not.  Therefore it is definitely heart warming to see a break through like this where he has found self belief to go with his talent.  And perhaps an improvement in his mental focus and tactics, thanks to his coach Magnus Norman, a player who made it to number 2 in the world in 2000. 

If the Australian Open is a good gauge, Norman has encouraged Warwinka to go for his shots, and go for big 2nd serves, be offensive and not be afraid to come into net.  Tactics in the age of conservative tennis is really good to see, and is proof that you can win big prizes playing this kind of game today.  And as I have mentioned before, aggressive tennis is not about hitting the ball as hard as possible, especially if there is no discernible to plan to make something happen.

What interests me is whether Warwinka’s success will have a positive effect on the “2nd tier” of the mens game.  Superficially there is an opportunity there, Djokovic is injured, Murray has not been the same player since returning from injury, and Nadal is starting to suffer losses on clay which you wouldn’t expect, especially after struggling on grass the last two years.  And let’s not forget Del Potro who has serious injury issues. Can the likes of Tsonga, Ferrer, Berdych, Almagro and Gasquet finally make a breakthrough at the highest level?  Or can slightly younger players like Dimitrov, Nishikori and Raonic come through.  Either way, I hope that Warwinka’s success in the first quarter of 2014 has sent a message to these guys that they too can achieve something big if they believe in themselves and work hard enough physically and mentally in the big moments of major tournaments.