The Murray Kerber Factor

2017 is proving to be a challenging period for the players who hold the world number one position in tennis. Angelique Kerber regained the top ranking from Serena Williams during the clay court season whilst Andy Murray has been struggling to make an impression, with many early exits from tournaments since the season began at the end of December.

What is really interesting is how similar the situation is for both players and I think this is worth exploring further.  The best way to do that would be to chart Angelique’s and Andy’s accent to number 1.

For Angelique, 2016 was a great year; the best year of her career and may turn out to be the best ever year she will experience. Not many players in history have won two grand slam titles in one season and played in three finals. Not only that, Angelique also got to the finals of the Olympics, Cincinnati and the year end championships in Singapore.  The only slight downside would be that she could have won more finals and being more dominant.  To put things into perspective, Angelique was ranked exactly 100 in 2011 and became a top ten player within twelve months and remained more or less a top ten player until her ascent to number 1 in September 2016. It will be safe to say that Angelique dreamed of winning a major title but perhaps never thought of becoming number 1 until last year when the opportunity arose; and we should reflect on some of the recent players who have failed to win a major title including Agnieszka Radwanska, Caroline Wozniacki, Jelena Jankovic and Elena Dementieva. 

So we really have to applaud what Angelique pulled off in 2016, the major finals had brilliant tennis and a lot of drama. Even though the Wimbledon final was only two sets, the tennis by both Angelique and Serena was very high quality.  2016 should be enough to guarantee Angelique a spot in the Hall of Fame in Newport when she is retired from tennis. 

Andy’s ascent to number 1 in the world was slightly different but still impressive. Andy’s problem throughout his career is that he beats the rest but lost consistently to Djokovic, Nadal and Federer is semifinals and finals.  Last year he played great in getting to the final of the French Open, in the semifinal he took out Stan Wawrinka impressively, Stan was defending champion; and in the final he went a set up against Djokovic and looked very dominant whilst Djokovic was understandably nervous. However, early into the 2nd set, Andy backed off which allowed Djokovic to hit deeper and harder shots consistently eventually wearing Andy down and he was unable to respond.

That defeat didn’t deter Andy too much as he went on to win Queens for a fifth time and Wimbledon for a second time defeating Milos Raonic in the final in straight sets. Andy then went on to defend his Olympic title in a marathon final against Juan Martin Del Potro which lasted almost four hours even though it was only four sets! Andy didn’t have a great US Open losing to Nishikori in the quarterfinal but had a very strong end of year, winning indoor tournaments in Beijing, Shanghai, Paris culminating with defeating his nemesis Djokovic in the World Tour Finals and claiming the number 1 spot for the first time in his career.  Again, Andy might have had a dream to be number 1 but it was never really a reality until he found a way to be consistent throughout the season on many surfaces at different times of the year; Andy did that last year for the first time in his career.

What we have is a situation where both Angelique and Andy claimed the number 1 spot for the first time in their careers:

•  Angelique got to number 1 at the age of 28 years and 9 months. Andy got to number at the age of 29 years and five months
•  Both players are the oldest in the open era to be ranked at number 1 for the very first time
•  Both players have built their game on counterpunching first.

So far in 2017, both players have had similar results; both knocked out at the fourth round stage of the Australian Open.  They also struggled during the American hardcourt season in Indian Wells and Miami; and have continued to struggle so far during the clay court season with early exits in Madrid and Rome.  Angelique did get to the final of the Monterrey Open in March but lost in three sets to Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.  Andy won the Dubai championships defeating Fernando Verdasco in the final. However, the dynamics of their struggles this year is interesting. My feeling is that their style of play, reaching number 1 status at such a late age relatively is contributing to their difficulties of handling the number 1 position in terms of results and dominant performances.

Angelique

I think Angelique has one of the best games on the WTA tour. Angelique is not the tallest at 1m 73 (5ft 8 inches) but is one of quickest athletes who could have excelled in any sport which requires the use of fast twitch fibres. The one area that has let Angelique down throughout her career is her serve, which is the weakest part of her game. The fact that she has won two grand slam titles and reached world number 1 is a testament to how good her overall game is. Angelique’s serve barely gets above 100 mph (160km) and her 2nd serve has been very attackable over the years. Angelique has worked hard to improve her serve which helped her to win the Australian Open in 2016; in her matches against Victoria Azarenka and Serena Williams she hit aces at crucial moments.  Like Rafael Nadal, Angelique is right handed, so serving does not come naturally to her, her serve is similar to Nadal in that she doesn’t extend up, hammer down or snap the wrist, it is more of a guide and a push into the court, hence the lack of power and looseness in the motion.  I have often said that Angelique should use her athleticism around the net more; she has a great smash and volleys well because of her quick reactions. However, like Simona Halep, Angelique is reluctant to go to net to finish points; that could be the difference in her winning more tournaments on a regular basis, along with improving her serve further; which would increase her confidence at a higher level for longer periods.

Andy

Andy also has one of the very best games on the ATP tour, Andy has worked incredibly hard to get to the level he is at now. Even though Andy is tall at 1m 9 (6ft 3inches) he never developed any natural weapons as a teenager and seemed to thrive on playing a counter puncher’s game where he doesn’t make many mistakes. It is slightly surprising that he took this type of game onto the tour but it has served him well.  However, you have to wonder how more successful Andy could have been particularly in grand slam finals when the minimum requirement is to take your game to your opponent and stay aggressive. Andy’s big problem has been his serve and his 2nd serve in particular, which has been way too attackable over the years, dropping short in the service box around 80mph, that simply won’t work in major finals. In 2008 Andy was quoted as saying that if he served at 75% first serves, he would win almost all of his matches. That was widely reported but I always thought it was a strange philosophy to have and a misguided one at best. That’s because Andy is often serving first serves between 115 to 140mph; at that pace it is almost impossible to serve at 75%, top players tend to serve anywhere from 60 to 66% first serves. Also, to me it immediately sent warning signs that Andy does not want to hit too many 2nd serves but the media never picked up on this. Andy knew deep down that his 2nd serve was not up to scratch and by hitting a very high proportion of 1st serves he would prevent guys attacking his weak second delivery.  One way to negate that is to hit a lot of three quarter pace kick serves, but unlike an Andre Agassi, Murray may not have the strength to do that consistently.

What we have is a situation where two players had a great 2016 and rose to the number 1 ranking which allowed them to fulfil a dream. It is also uncanny how both players were well aware that to make the leap from contender to champion they had to add a more aggressive element to their counterpunching style of play.  Angelique was able to make use of her down the line shots and sometimes attack short balls; Andy used Ivan Lendl’s experience and guidance to add something extra to his game. Ivan faced a lot of quality attacking players in his career and needed to come up with ways to defeat them on a regular basis.  I think the problems both players are having in 2017 stem from their style of play, it is very difficult to stay ahead of the pack with a counterpunching game, and mentally it is too taxing. It is probably more mental than physical because counterpunchers by nature are willing to be out on the court for long periods of time to win matches. However, the burden of being the best player in the world means that players are out to take your scalp and you are obliged to show the world you are the person to beat with dominant performances more often than not.

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal who can also be classed as counterpunchers learned that to stay at number 1 for any length of time you need to finish matches quickly and save energy for the latter stages. Under Boris Becker, Novak Djokovic perfected the art of quick points, which is something he is not known for as the media never really understood what Becker brought to Djokovic to make the difference.

The challenge is set for both Angelique and Andy to learn from the first half of the year and take that into the grass court and hard court season, surfaces both players do well on, the French Open may have come to soon to turn around their fortunes. The opportunity is there to stay at number 1 throughout the summer if Angelique improves her French Open performance and Andy does not have a disastrous Wimbledon. Let’s see how they go.