A Detailed Look at Tennis' "Next Gen"

This year’s US Open final between Alexander (Sasha) Zverev and Dominic Thiem would usually be the final major tournament of 2020. Despite the strange situation of one more major tournament to be played at the French Open due to coronavirus, it does not stop us from assessing how the “next gen” performed at the US Open in the absence of Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and the unfortunate disqualification of Novak Djokovic during the tournament. 

This gave the US Open an impetus and sense of urgency we have not seen at a major tournament for years, probably since 2001 Wimbledon when Federer knocked Pete Sampras out of Wimbledon and all of the remaining players suddenly realised it was their big opportunity. 

So, how did the “next gen” do at the US Open and what are the implications for the future of men’s tennis going forward?  What we saw was a mixed bag of performances by the stars of tomorrow which left more questions than answers, and that includes the final itself.

22-year-old Stefanos Tsitsipas was the first casualty losing to Borna Coric in the third round. Tsitsipas had the match under complete control with a two sets to one lead and a handy 5-1 lead in the fourth set; but from there it went horribly wrong as he contrived to blow six match points losing the fourth set 7:5, not even taking it to a tiebreak.  If that wasn’t bad enough, Tsitsipas took an early break in the fifth set only to be broken back and eventually losing the fifth set tiebreak. The sort of defeat that can have a long-term psychological impact, Tsitsipas will have to be mentally strong and will need a lot of external help to recover from that one.  Ironically, this defeat occurred before Djokovic’s bizarre disqualification for hitting a line judge with a tennis ball, therefore we cannot even put it down to over eagerness turning to anxiety.

The next “next gen” player to succumb was 22-year-old American Taylor Fritz, who lost to fellow “next gen” Denis Shapovalov of Canada in a third round five set battle.  Fritz held a two sets to one lead but was unable to see it through, with Shapovalov coming through strongly to take the fifth set 6-2. 

Shapovalov (also 22 years old) used his win to propel him to the quarterfinals.  Unfortunately, after three tough matches in a row, Shapovalov ran out of gas in his defeat to Pablo Carreño Busta, the player who benefited from Djokovic’s misfortune.  Shapovalov did have a good four set win over David Goffin in round four but lost the quarterfinal in five sets.  However, this was progress made for Denis as this was the furthest he has been in a grand slam tournament thus far.  

Another 22-year-old American, Francis Tiafoe also had a reasonable tournament, getting to the fourth round but went down limply 4-6 1-6 0-6 to Russian Daniil Medvedev. 

That left in the draw, the oldest of the next gen crop in German Alexander (Sascha) Zverev at age 23 and Daniil Medvedev age 24.  Zverev did have a roller coaster route to the semi-final, his second at grand slam level and his match against Carreño Busta followed the pattern of his previous matches, this time going two sets down in just over an hour and looking completely out of it.  Sascha then proceeded to make a comeback and take it in five sets in what can only be described as a capitulation by Carreño Busta. Looking at the stats, each participant won only 41% of the points on their second serve, which shows how both guys struggled to get a grip on their opponent.

The second semi-final saw last year’s finalist Daniil Medvedev lose to Austrian Dominic Thiem in three sets, two of those being in tiebreaks. In fact, Medvedev served for the second and third sets but still lost in straight sets…. One of the commentators on US Open Radio described Medvedev’s game beautifully when he said “Medvedev is the club player no one wants to play!”  It is kind of astonishing for an elite player who is clearly talented to be likened to a club player, but it is unique to watch a man 1metre 98 tall (6 ft 6 inches) stand virtually on the backboard to rally and hit a lot of junk balls throughout the course of his matches.

Meanwhile Dominic Thiem at the age of 27 just about misses the “next gen” tag but too young to be lumbered with the rather patronising “lost gen” tag of players between 29 and 31 who have underachieved in their careers.   Thiem has been seen as the natural successor to Nadal, having lost two French Open finals to him but has now played two hardcourt finals in a row.  Thiem also lost to Djokovic at this year’s Australian Open, so was desperate not to lose a fourth final, especially going into the championship match as favourite.

This may explain why Thiem started the match horribly, looking completely out of sorts and not getting the ball in play consistently.  Zverev picked up on this and started well, attacking the net as often as possible and hit some very big serves over 220kph (135mph).   However, even though Zverev rushed to a two sets lead, he was still displaying signs of wilting under the pressure, perhaps Thiem sensed this and staged his own comeback, claiming the next two sets and taking it to a fifth. If Zverev was showing some nerves, Thiem’s tactics were bizarre, standing to receive both first and second serves virtually at the backboard, something I never thought I would see in a grand slam final, especially considering many of Zverev’s second serves were barely 120kph (75mph). 

Zverev went up a break in the fifth set and got broken back, then broke again to serve for the championship at 5-3, where he played a terrible game and two games later Thiem found himself serving for the championship!  Needless to say, Thiem got broken to love and we went into the first ever fifth set tiebreak in a US Open final.  The tiebreak encapsulated the final with both players suffering mentally and it showed in the tennis which was dire.  On Thiem’s first match point, Zverev put in a serve of 68mph, I repeat, 68mph and won the point! Thiem got a second match point and took it, to the relief of not only himself but the millions watching on television and listening on radio, because it was torture!

We saw an emotional presentation ceremony by both guys, particularly Zverev who took the defeat hard and knew he threw away a great opportunity. Meanwhile, Thiem became the first man since Pancho Gonzales in 1949 to come from two sets down to win the US Open.  Thiem incredibly is the first player born in the 1990s to win a major tournament.

What does the US Open tell us about the direction of men’s tennis?  I think there are some implications which need to be discussed and addressed.

First of all, let’s look at the stats of the final.  Zverev won 70% of his first serves, and Thiem 68%, which is unusually low for elite level players. Zverev also hit 15 double faults and appeared to have no game plan or strategy throughout the final because many second serves were going in at 120 kph (75mph) then out of the blue would serve second serves at 208kph (129mph) which is irrational and not expected.  It could work as a strategy if you put more slice and spin on the ball to control that pace, as opposed to banging them in and hope for the best.  However, Thiem cannot be exonerated either, a more consistent and switched on player would not have allowed Thiem to return serve near the backboard and get away with it on a medium paced hardcourt. 

The “lost gen” as they have been dubbed put up a very poor showing at the US Open. Milos Raonic was touted to have a very good tournament but disappeared early to another Canadian Vasek Pospisil.  Grigor Dimitrov lost in the second round to Márton Fucsovics and David Goffin fell to Shapovalov.    

Looking at the way so many younger elite players appear unable to control the tempo of five set matches leaves me to wonder whether the taking away of five set finals at ATP level is having an impact on the current and future generation? In the past, most champions bar a very few exceptions won five set finals at Masters level before winning their first major, they were a good training ground in some of the biggest stadiums, such as Indian Wells, Miami and the Italian Open.  I wrote an article about this in 2015 pointing out the issues this could cause in future. https://www.laurietennisarticles.net/2015/05/best-of-five-set-masters-finals-lets.html

A new development I have noticed is the coaching of some next gen players by their fathers, something more associated with the WTA tour over the decades. The debate has often been when should a player cut ties with their parent(s) as their coach as it can cause emotional issues and dramas, we saw that many times. In the men’s game it has been rarer, the best players usually take on elite level coaches or recently retired players early in their careers. I speculate but I wonder how Tsitsipas and Zverev in particular have adapted at the highest level.  Both players’ experience a lot of ups and downs from match to match, with no discernible pattern of play / strategy.  And at grand slam level, you need to be winning the early round matches quickly and efficiently to save energy for the business end, i.e. semi-finals and finals.

To transition to champions, both players will have to become much more consistent in their game plan and mentality. Zverev has brought in David Ferrer and tried unsuccessfully to recruit Ivan Lendl long term but his father perhaps has too much influence. A comparable scenario is Caroline Wozniacki where her father Piotr would call all of the shots even when they brought in coaches. Tsitsipas works with the Mouratoglou academy but has not really worked with a top ex player from week to week.

Stan Wawrinka’s talent came out when he hired ex top five player Magnus Norman, giving him the belief he could to challenge and beat the best players. And despite the poor-quality final, Nicolas Massu has clearly been a great addition to Thiem’s camp over the past eighteen months, consistently challenging at grand slam level on different surfaces.

As tennis fans, we want to see the “next gen” step it up and improve further over the next eighteen months. One of these guys will break out to win a major soon but the time is now to make a statement and show they can win a major when Djokovic, Nadal and Federer are in the draw. Coronavirus permitting, the next eighteen months should be interesting.