Previewing the 2012 WTA season

The 2011 WTA season turned out to be a very interesting one with four different nationalities winning the major titles. Serena Williams did not win a major title for the first time since 2006 whilst Petra Kvitova announced herself as the most exciting young talent to emerge for many years, perhaps since Justine Henin and Kim Clijsters 10 years previously. An exciting transition at the top is certainly taking place. With the season about to commence in Australasia, it’s a good time to assess the contenders for the major prizes in 2012.

Caroline Wozniacki

Currently the world number 1 for the past 18 months, Caroline Wozniacki has come in for quite a bit of criticism. There are a number of reasons for this, Wozniacki didn’t win any major titles or make any major finals. Traditionally, tennis fans or media do not like to see a number 1 player with no major titles. Wozniacki’s style of play is a contributing factor to her lack of major success; a counterpuncher by nature, winning majors is all about being brave on the day and taking the game to your opponent before they take it away from you.

As for 2012, Wozniacki is still only 21 years old and has time on her side to win a major title, that could happen in 2012 as she will be top seed for the Australian Open and still holds the edge on many of her opponents. Wozniacki had a good 2011 winning 6 titles including Dubai and Indian Wells. To go one better and win a first major title, Wozniacki would need to work on her serve and making her forehand a bigger weapon, plus improve her play in the forecourt, volleys in particular.

This sounds a tall order, and it’s surprising a number 1 player has so many technical deficiencies. Therefore we will see whether Wozniacki has improved or allowed the pressure to get to her. If Wozniacki has worked to improve during the off season, she has every chance of winning a major.

Petra Kvitova

This is the player which has made the new season such an exciting proposition; I would imagine this is the most anticipated new season for a number of years. Kvitova had a great breakout season, winning 7 titles including Wimbledon, Madrid, WTA championships and the Federation cup with Czech Republic defeating mighty Russia in the final. Kvitova won titles on all surfaces and finished the season 115 points off Caroline Wozniacki’s number 1 position. Kvitova also won a host of awards including WTA player of the year and breakout player of the year, and fans favourite player of the year.

The question for 2012 will be whether Kvitova can build on the momentum she’s established. There will probably be some downs along the way but Kvitova has the game not only to become number 1 but to dominate the game for the foreseeable future. That’s due to the fact that Kvitova has more shots, weapons and skill than probably all of her rivals and has recently shown she has mental fortitude under pressure, often coming from behind in the score to win.

Kivitova has yet to master outdoor hardcourts, I think she can make her serve more of a weapon on that surface and add more topspin to her forehand for control to account for varying conditions. It’s entirely possible Kvitova will defend her Wimbledon trophy and is capable of winning the French Open as well, 2012 should be another great year for Petra Kvitova.

Serena Williams

Serena Williams is certainly at a crossroads, she’s been the top player since 2008 with the demise of Justine Henin during that period, winning a hatful of major titles. However, a life threatening illness meant that Serena couldn’t start her season until June at Eastbourne, which didn’t give her time to get enough matches for a proper Wimbledon challenge.

Serena did go on to claim the Canadian Open title (Rogers Cup) and reach the US Open final before succumbing to an inspired Sam Stosur. That has turned out to be Serena Williams’ last match of 2011. The simple questions are, is Serena motivated to enter enough tournaments to keep her match sharp for the major tournaments. Also, will the rise of Petra Kvitova motivate Serena to get back to the top to challenge the younger players? Serena has the best serve and return of serve in the womens game, but Kvitova is looking to challenge that position. Serena has the edge on athleticism but has a litany of injuries to contend with.

If Serena can challenge for the major titles, it could be a vintage 2012 for the WTA.

Victoria Azarenka

Azarenka had a great purple patch in the spring winning Miami for a 2nd time and Marbella on clay. Azarenka also won Luxembourg in the autumn and made the final of Madrid, the semi final at Wimbledon and the final of the year end WTA championships, each time losing to Petra Kvitova. Azarenka has a great solid groundstroke game and has the ability to come to net from time to time to finish off points. That type of game usually means hard courts will be her best surface but the French Open is also a realistic possibility in 2012.

Azarenka should be able to continue her progression to a possible major title in 2012; she’s feeling confident and has improved her movement and fitness, her chances for a great 2012 look good. The only problem I see is Azarenka facing Kvitova in a major semi final or final. In that scenario she becomes the immediate counterpuncher because of Kvitova’s aggressive attitude. A lot of people predict it to be the great rivalry for years to come; I see it developing in the same way as Agassi v Sampras, with Azarenka playing the Agassi role.

Another analogy / comparison will certainly be Janica Kostelic and Anja Paerson who had that great rivalry in skiing, Azarenka being similar to Paerson and Kvitova similar to Kostelic. Contrast in styles and personalities make for great rivalries and Azarenka has the opportunity to help create something special in 2012.

Maria Sharapova

It’s strange to think that Sharapova won the Italian Open, Cincinnati and got to the final of Wimbledon and the semi final of the French Open. And yet Sharapova is kind of the forgotten player in the top 5 despite her being such a renowned figure in the world of sport.

And to me there’s a simple reason for that, despite having such a great comeback in 2011 playing great tennis and winning big events, you never know when she’s going to hit a double fault! And you certainly don’t know when she’s going to double fault during a crucial stage of a big match. Double faults are the reason why Sharapova hasn’t reclaimed a major title.

Assuming Sharapova recovers from her foot injury sustained in Japan in October and continues to be relatively injury free with her right shoulder, Sharapova could have a great 2012 and win a major title as long as she can somehow banish the demons (i.e. nerves) within her and cut out the double faults in big matches. John McEnroe reckons Sharapova should cut the 2nd serve out of the equation and work on getting a high first serve percentage. I don’t know if that is realistic but Sharapova has to rectify the situation to get back to the top of tennis.

Sam Stosur

Sam Stosur had a great 2011, winning the US Open title in emphatic style, comprehensively outplaying Serena Williams in the final. Stosur also got to the final of the Italian Open where she lost to Maria Sharapova, and the year end championships semi final, playing a great match against Petra Kvitova before losing in 3 sets.

Stosur will always be a threat at the French Open, clay being by far her best surface. Stosur also has the experience of playing a final there, so a good opportunity to win there in 2012. Stosur will also be a sentimental favourite with the Australian fans to win the Australian Open, there will be a lot of pressure and it will be interesting to see how she handles it.

My only concern for Stosur in 2012 will be that she just doesn’t win enough smaller events. In fact, besides being a great doubles specialist before her illness and reincarnation as a top singles player, Stosur has only won 3 singles titles so far in her career. Stosur has a game to become a dominant player at the top of the womens game, with an incredible forehand and topspin (kick) serve. However, Stosur needs to win some smaller events to give her the confidence to win the big events consistently.

Other players that can make a breakthrough in 2012 include:

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova – I think Pavlyuchenkova has the game to become a top five player in the next few years; she’s a natural ball striker with a good serve. Pavlyuchenkova needs to work on her fitness and mental game but has great potential.

Kim Clijsters – You never write off a naturally talented player who has a lot of experience, Clijsters is defending Australian champion after all. With Clijsters it’s about fitness, motivation and making time for her daughter, if she can stay fit, she’s a threat at the majors.

Jelena Jankovic – I keep thinking Jankovic is too talented not to breakthrough to win a major title, but for some reason Jankovic just cannot get it together mentally. It’s not too late for her so let’s see what will happen in 2012.

Na Li – Pete Sampras recently joined Na for an exhibition in China and said some kind words about her. Along the lines that it will take time for her to adjust to being a grand slam champion in the way it did for Novak Djokovic and for Sampras 20 years ago. I think the difference is that both those guys were very young where Na is almost veteran status and probably not as hungry for success. Na certainly has the talent; if she can find the motivation she can surprise everyone again in 2012.

Vera Zvonareva - Similar in game style and temperament to Jelena Jankovic, Zvonareva has the talent to be a major champion. However, like Jankovic, Zvonareva may lack the self belief to be a champion and beat all of the contenders in 7 matches. Zvonareva still has about 3 years to make something happen, let’s see if that can be in 2012.

Assessing Federer and Sampras

The last 20 years have been a very interesting period for men’s tennis with two of the most prolific champions of the 1990s and 2000s overlapping each other. Both players had significant rivals and set many records along the way. With Roger Federer breaking yet another record at the year end ATP World Tour finals a couple of weeks ago, it will be interesting to assess how both players have helped to define their eras.

Pete Sampras’ major achievements

Sampras won 64 titles including 14 major championships. Sampras finished year end number for 6 years from 1993 through 1998 which is a record. Sampras currently holds the record for most weeks at number 1 (286 weeks). Sampras won Wimbledon on 7 occasions which is an open era record; he’s also tied with Jimmy Connors and Roger Federer for 5 US Open titles. Sampras is the youngest ever US Open winner at 19 years and 28 days. Sampras won the Davis Cup in 1992 and 1995 and was a losing finalist in 1994 and 1997. Sampras won the Australian Open in 1994 and 1997 and was a losing finalist in 1995. Sampras won major titles every year from 1993 to 2000 and appeared in major finals from 1992 to 2002.

As far as other titles go, Sampras won the ATP championships 5 times and played in 6 finals. He won Miami, Cincinnati, Indianapolis three times each plus Indian Wells, Queens, Los Angeles, Paris Bercy twice. Sampras won 11 Masters Series including the Italian Open.

Roger Federer’s major achievements

Federer has won 70 titles including 16 major championships which is a record. Federer has participated in a record 23 major finals and played in over 30 consecutive major quarterfinals. Federer is tied with Sampras and Connors for 5 US Open wins. He’s tied with Andre Agassi with four Australian Open wins in the Open era; he’s won Wimbledon 6 times and the French Open on one occasion. Federer spent 237 straight weeks as number 1 between 2004 and 2008 which is a record, and 285 weeks in total so far. Federer won Olympics doubles gold in 2008 in Beijing with Stan Warinka. Incredibly, Federer has not missed a single Grand Slam tournament which is very unusual, no doubt accounting for his consistency of results as well.

In terms of other tournaments, Federer recently broke the record of winning the ATP World Tour finals on six occasions, going one better than Sampras and Ivan Lendl. Federer has won his local tournament Basel four times, Cincinnati, Canada, Dubai three times each. Federer has won 18 Masters Series titles so far including Hamburg on three occasions.




1990s – Sampras era

1990s was very much Sampras’ decade; he won 61 titles from 1990 to 1999. It was an interesting decade because there were more sanctioned surfaces on the ATP tour, and court speeds varied starkly depending on location and time of year. Most indoor tournaments in Europe and America were played on indoor carpet (Supreme in America, Taraflex in Europe) and the surfaces were fast and low bouncing, although kick serves were still effective, the surface suited attackers and baseliners as long as they played aggressive.

Grass was hard, fast and low bouncing and clay slow and high bouncing, fast balls were used on grass and heavy balls were used on clay. Hardcourts were also quite varied in pace, Australia used rebound ace which was often very slow and high bouncing, whilst hardcourts in America were relatively fast (except Miami which has always been slow).

The many different types of surfaces meant there were a variety of styles of play on the ATP tour, serve and volleyers, aggressive baseliners, counterpunchers, grass and claycourt specialists. This is reflected by the fact that, Lendl, Edberg, Becker, Courier, Sampras, Agassi, Muster, Moya, Rafter and Kafelnikov all held the number 1 position, a cross section of serve and volleyers (all court players) and baseliners.

2000s – Federer era

As often, eras overlap; Federer won his first major title at Wimbledon in 2003, 10 months after Sampras’ last in September 2002 at the US Open. From 2000 to 2009 Federer won 62 titles. As the decade progressed, there was a convergence of surfaces and surface speed, and with the gradual retirement of attacking players, there was a convergence in styles of play. Court surfaces also changed, indoor carpet was phased out to be replaced by indoor hardcourts, which were slower and higher bouncing. This change along with the change of composition of grass at Wimbledon ensured that net play would become an exception rather than the norm.

Clay was also speeded up as the decade progressed; lighter balls were introduced, which ironically would have suited the many attacking players of the 1990s. String technology also advanced and more top players used synthetic strings or a combination of synthetic and natural gut. To reflect the slowing down of surfaces, players on average were stringing their racquets much looser than top players of the 1990s.

The Australian Open changed surfaces from distinctive rebound ace to a more conventional plexicushion hardcourt which is medium slow and high bouncing, again favouring baseline play. Tennis shifted from players with natural ability, athleticism and improvisational skills to a more physical, functional style which favours stamina and percentage play.

Sampras style of play

Sampras is an interesting player because he seems to fit into many categories of peoples thoughts about his game. Sampras once said that the media didn’t understand him or his game, there might be some truth in that. Depending on who you speak to, you get a different view of what Sampras’ game was about. Some see Sampras as a serve and volley specialist, some view him as having a big serve where the returner didn’t get a look in. Some view him as an all court player with great movement, one guy I spoke to recently didn’t remember him for a big serve, whilst another guy remembers him been very cool under pressure.

Fred Perry made the famous quote in 1993 which said Sampras “moves like oil, you don’t hear him, you just hear the other guy, and the other guy’s losing.” In 1999 Agassi described Sampras’ forehand as “obnoxious” during a Wimbledon press conference.

Sampras talked about his versatility in his book, which is reflected by the many conceptions different people have of his game, he can be described as all of these things. Sampras was one of the most talented players of the open era who modelled his game after Australians Rod Laver and Ken Rosewall. Sampras was very much a product of the modern era, and I would describe his game as a hybrid between Ivan Lendl and Boris Becker, the movement and big forehand of Lendl and the big serve and athleticism of Becker.

Sampras had every shot and improvised shot in the book, as evidence by the many YouTube clips that document his game. Sampras also has what is considered the best and most beautiful rhtymic serve of the open era, which had twice as many rpms as his rivals, which made his 2nd serve delivery fantastic because it was delivered at pace with an incredible amount of slice and topspin. Sampras also played differently depending on the surface, on grass, Sampras served and volleyed on every serve, first and second, on hardcourts he often played a more baseline oriented game, especially in the early 1990s on slower hardcourts like Indian Wells, Miami and Australia.

Sampras’ game also went through a few phases, under Joe Brandi in the early 1990s, Sampras was a raw talent who blew hot and cold, under Tim Gullickson, Sampras became the number 1 player who could play on any surface. Under Paul Annacone, Sampras used his athleticism and big serve and volleys more later in his career. Sampras also started chipping and charging more, something he hardly did before. Sampras’ more aggressive game late on in his career sacrificed his game on clay which requires more patience from the baseline.

Sampras' return game also changed as he got older, in his early years he often ran around his backhand to smack forehands, later in his career he used the chip and charge and backhand drive down the line return more often.

One aspect of the game which really gave Sampras a different dimension was his ability to hit winning returns and passing shots, off both wings, down the line and crosscourt plus lobs, that separated him from other attacking players of that era and was the reason he won Wimbledon 7 times. In the 1995 Wimbledon final against Becker, Sampras hit over 25 passing shot winners and in the 2000 final against Rafter, Sampras hit over 20 passing shot winners, and 12 return winners, on each occasion he lost the first set in a tiebreak.

Federer style of play

In Federer’s case, there are no arguments or discussion; he’s universally admired as having a beautiful game. One of the reasons for this is that Federer likes to bring out his best regardless of who he’s playing, whether it be a journeyman or a top player. For instance, some of Sampras’ greatest performances are against his peers like Agassi in the 1999 Wimbledon final, Federer makes great performances against journeymen as well, something crowds appreciate.

As Sampras gradually got older, his game became less and less baseline oriented, whilst as Federer got older, his game became more and more baseline oriented. In the 2003 Wimbledon final, Federer served and volleyed on over 3 quarters of his first serves, in 2004 that ratio fell to under 20%. The reason for this is the slowing down of surfaces, however, this allowed Federer to play an expansive baseline game which is great to watch, especially on grass where the ball should move quicker and stay lower.

The speeding up of the clay surfaces also helped Federer as it allowed him to play his game and create lots more opportunities to hit winners with the faster balls and more modern strings. Federer’s trademark has been his forehand and serve, and exceptional movement which has allowed him to stay relatively injury free for long periods of time, or at least, not have the serious injuries many of his colleagues suffer.

Federer also has a mean backhand down the line and exceptional improvisational skills. Federer also has every shot in the book and seems to invent new ones as well, which is no mean feat. What would have been even more interesting is if Federer had used his volleying ability and athleticism at net even more, that would have given him an even extra dimension especially in the really big matches he plays at this stage of his career.

Recently Federer has been playing a more aggressive game under the guidance of Paul Annacone, who of course was Sampras’ long term coach after the death of Tim Gullickson. Federer has been running around his backhand more to hit forehand returns and is using the chip and charge as a tactic at opportune moments.




Sampras’ Rivals

Sampras was one of the few players to dominate virtually all of his top rivals. Sampras only had losing records against Sergei Brugera, Michael Stich and Richard Krajieck amongst his peers, whilst having close losing records to Marat Safin and Lleyton Hewitt, but there’s a ten year age gap (11 years in Hewitt’s case). This was due to Sampras’ ability to raise his game in the big matches, and match his opponents from the baseline, that again separated him other attacking players of that era.

v Andre Agassi 20-14
v Jim Courier 16-4
v Patrick Rafter 12-4
v Thomas Muster 9-2
v Michael Chang 12-8
v Goran Ivanesivic 12-6
v Boris Becker 12-7
v Greg Rusedski 9-1
v Cedric Pioline 9-0
v Albert Costa 5-0
v David Wheaton 8-0
v Todd Martin 18-4
v Jonas Bjorkman 9-2
v Yvegeny Kafelnikov 11-2
v Michael Stich 4-5
v Mark Phillipoussis 7-4
v Richard Krajieck 4-6
v Sergei Brugera 2-3
v Tim Henman 6-1
v Stefan Edberg 8-6
v Petra Korda 12-5

Federer’s Rivals

Federer also enjoys healthy leads on many of his rivals. However, he has a comprehensive losing record to Rafael Nadal, mainly because Nadal has been able to get to Federer’s backhand in a way no other player can. Federer also has a losing record to Murray, but Murray has never beaten Federer in a grand slam tournament. Other than that, Federer has excellent records against many top players.

V Rafael Nadal 9-17
V Novak Djokovic 14-10
V Andy Roddick 21-2
V Joe Wilfred Tsonga 8-3
V David Ferrer 12-0
V Marat Safin 10-2
V Juan Martin Del Potro 7-2
V Nicolay Davydenko 15-2
V Lleyton Hewitt 18-8
V Juan Carlos Ferrero 9-3
V David Nalbandian 11-8
V Andy Murray 6-8
V James Blake 10-1
V Tomas Berdych 10-4
V Gael Monfils 6-1
V Carlos Moya 7-0
v Gaston Gaudio 5-0
v Guillermo Canas 3-3

Roger Federer’s career is still on and it may be a while before he retires, but make no mistake, all achievements today are a bonus and his career has been defined by his exploits in the 2000s. It’s remarkable how he and Sampras have had such similar careers in some ways and different in other ways. Both men can identify as having a unique talent and the ability to use a small headed heavy Wilson midsize racquet that most other players will not touch. These guys are one offs.