Previewing the 2025 WTA Season

2024 was a year of flux and transition on the WTA Tour.  A year which saw Ayrna Sabalenka finish number 1 over Iga Swiatek.  The WTA Finals took place in Riyadh Saudi Arabia with all the controversy that brings.  Plus we had the obligatory scandal with world number 2 Iga Swiatek failing a drug test and serving a one month suspension.

This sets up the 2025 season as there are going to be many more stories and continued fallout from the previous twelve months. Let’s take a look at the players set to have the biggest influence in 2025 if things go to their plan.

Aryna Sabalenka

Sabalenka achieved her dream of finishing 2024 as World Number 1 and validating herself as the best player.  The year started great with her defending the Australian Open title, easily beating Qinwen Zheng in the final.  Sabelenka also won titles in Cincinnati in August and Wuhan in October.

In September, Sabalenka won her first US Open title with a strong performance against Jessica Pegula.  This victory atoned for the dreadful US Open final she played in 2023 against Coco Gauff.  A final she threw away with a series of diabolical errors. 

Sabalenka’s great summer and autumn run allowed her to move ahead of Iga Swiatek and claim the number 1 position, finishing the year with four titles won.  Now, this does sound an underwhelming amount of titles for a year end number 1 player. However, we are in a period of WTA history where number 1 players win a relatively small number of titles. Swiatek won seven titles in 2022 and six in 2023 which is good.  Four is quite small.

So, where does that leave Sabalenka for her 2025 prospects?  Simple, she needs to become more consistent.  Sabalenka went eight months without winning a title after winning the Australian Open, which is not good enough for an elite player.  Also, Sabalenka has to start winning clay titles to avoid being labelled a hardcourt specialist.  Sabalenka is competitive on clay and grass which makes it slightly surprising she is not winning any titles on those surfaces.  She has won Madrid twice in 2021 and 2023 but no clay titles anywhere else so far. 

How does Sabalenka become more consistent? In the past a combination of nerves and unforced errors did for her in big match situations.  Hardcourts are perfect surfaces, not clay and grass. Clay and grass require more control and more improvisation. The ability to adapt to any bad bounces and varying conditions form day to day.  Sabalenka tends to over hit the ball which is a problem if there are varying conditions.  Hardcourt tournaments tend to be played either indoors or in very good weather, not much variation in other words.

Sabalenka's goals for 2025 will be to retain her number 1 ranking, win major tournaments and win tournaments on clay on grass.

Iga Swiatek

Iga Swiatek had an incredible 2024. Not always for positive reasons but her name was on the front and back pages of newspapers worldwide. Mainly for failing a drug test in the late summer which caused her to serve a one month ban by the WTA.  It is almost ironic that both Jannik Sinner and Iga Swiatek are two players who are decidedly low key but thrust into the limelight for failing performance enhancing drug tests. 

As for the tennis itself, Swiatek’s 2024 fell into two halves. The first half of 2024 saw her win the Qatar Open, Indian Wells, Madrid Open, Italian Open and the French Open.  The biggest titles bar the Australian Open won by Swiatek. However, the second half of the season proved to be somewhat of a disaster.  

Swiatek made no impression at Wimbledon losing to Yulia Putintseva in the 3^rd round.  Swiatek then had a shocker at the Olympics; losing to Qinwen Zheng in the semifinal when she was red hot favourite. The pressure seemed to get to her. After the Olympics things did not improve; a semifinal loss in Cincinnati and a quarterfinal loss at the US Open to Pegula ensured Swiatek won no titles for the rest of the year.  Five titles between February and June, no titles from July to October.

This was not a good look and Swiatek took action, parting ways with her long term coach Tomasz Wiktorowski and hiring Belgian coach Wim Fissette.  An appointment I question as Wim Fissette has coached a number of top players over the last five years, spending on average 12 months or less with each player.  On the surface this appears a strange decision by Swiatek and I hope not one that smacks of desperation.

Where does this leave Swiatek for the new season?  One of the reasons she changed coaches was due to her game being telegraphed by the opposition. Swiatek has cultivated a very typical game. Back in 2022 I took a look at her game in depth and noted her problems on grass.  That has now translated to hardcourts.  Swiatek’s serve is readable and she relies too much on the kicker serve on the ad court.  Her forehand is also an issue; she seems to need too much time.

This is surprising as surfaces are not even as fast as they used to be. There are no indoor carpet surfaces, acrylic hardcourts take more spin and are slower, whilst grass is not as fast as previous decades. It is disappointing Swiatek struggles on what is considered faster surfaces (by today’s standards). Swiatek also tweaked her service action earlier this year but I don’t think that has made a profound difference to her game. 

Swiatek’s task in 2025 is a relatively simple one.  Make a splash early with Wim Lissette and reveal a more varied tennis game, with more enterprise and net play. Vary her serve more with some slice to go with the kick on the ad court. Plus win titles all year round, not just in the spring and early summer.

Coco Gauff

It is incredible to think Coco Gauff is only twenty years old as she seems like a veteran already. But she is still learning the game; making big mistakes, winning big titles, in the Top 4. Inconsistent is the word that springs to mind despite the success so far. We haven’t seen players so experienced at the age of 20 since Maria Sharapova in 2006 when she won the US Open, her then second grand slam title.

Of course with this success comes a lot of expectation, which Coco is not quite ready for. Due to the fact that her game still has some technical flaws which need plugging.  As for her year in 2024, Coco started off very well, winning the title in Auckland and reaching the semifinal of the Australian Open. There she lost a tight match to eventual champion Ayrna Sabalenka in two sets.  Coco then had a rather patchy period from the spring right through to the autumn. On the clay she lost to Swiatek at the semifinal stage of both the Italian Open and French Open. Coco also lost to American Emma Navarro at the rd. 16 stage of both Wimbledon and the US Open, where she was defending champion (a very disappointing defeat as it turned out).

Interspersed within that, Coco flopped at the Olympics in Paris, losing in the round of 16 to Croatian Donna Vekic.

Coco finally came good in the autumn, where she won the China Open in October beating Karolina Muchova in the final. Coco then claimed her biggest title of the season by winning the WTA Finals in Saudi Arabia; coming from a set down to beat Qinwen Jheng in the final.  Therefore, Coco finished the year with three titles. One in January and two in October.  In the wider scheme of things, that’s not great. And yet again it seems the current Top 4 players win very few tournaments through the course of the season.

Coco parted ways with her coach Brad Gilbert after the US Open. There were clearly communication issues between the two and it seemed Coco’s forehand got progressively worse. As a tactician, Brad Gilbert has always believed in defence first and build your game from there. Coco’s elite speed and athleticism is a blessing and a hindrance. A hindrance in that she needs to find the balance of taking the initiative.

To do that she needs to improve her forehand and serve. Coco has appointed Matt Daly to her team and is working on her technical issues. The reports are that she is working on various forehand grips (experimenting).  My opinion is her stance is the bigger issue, hitting off the back foot too often and over rotating her hip. Not getting forward momentum because of her stance which is too open and she doesn’t plant her front foot.  Her stance is not semi open (the modern stance of choice since the 1990s).

What I do know from watching tennis for decades is that top players have varying grips. Grips are not usually a hindrance to a top player progressing. Many players have achieved great things with western grips. From Jim Courier to Amelie Mauresmo to Rafael Nadal. It might be difficult for Coco to progress higher up the rankings if she is worried about her game from a technical standpoint.  However, her priority will be to win titles more consistently, I don’t see her going for number 1 at this stage if she is worried about her overall game. 

Elena Rybakina

Elena Rybakina is not currently in the Top 4. But it is fair to say that most tennis fans see her as a legitimate member of the Top Four Clan. Overall it was a disappointing season for Rybakina for a number of reasons. But I think her decisions taken in October were extremely positive and hopefully fruitful for 2025.

Rybakina started off the 2024 season well by winning Brisbane international, taking out Sabalenka in the final with a surprising 6-3 6-0 score line. Rybakina then played the Adelaide International before the Australian Open and lost in the quarterfinal. Now on the face of it, it does seem a strange decision for an elite player to play two tournaments before the Australian Open. Unless she was not expecting to win Brisbane and already gave her commitment to the Adelaide organisers. On the other hand, there was nothing to stop her pulling out as she had all the tennis she needed to play a major tournament.

That sense of overplaying found her out quickly, as she duly got dumped out in the 2^nd round of the Australian Open, losing in three sets to Anna Blinkova in a third set tiebreak.  So, despite Brisbane a disappointing start to the season.  Rybakina then lost finals in Qatar and Miami, losing to Swiatek and Danielle Collins. The result in Miami another surprise.  Rybakina lost in the Madrid semifinal to Sabalenka and pulled out of the Italian Open through injury.  By the time Roland Garros came around, Rybakina was not looking the assured player we came to expect. In the quarterfinal she had another surprising loss, this time to Jasmine Paolini, who went on to make the final.

In her favoured grass season, Rybakina retired in Berlin but was ready for Wimbledon, where she was the hot favourite to take the title. However, unfortunately for her, she ran into Barbora Krejcikova playing brilliant and resilient tennis, Rybakina’s dream to win a second Wimbledon over for another year.  Rybakina withdrew from the Olympics and Canada, lost early in Cincinnati and retired sadly after one match at the US Open. 

It was clear at this stage there were issues behind the scenes. It soon became apparent that Rybakina had to rid herself of her coach Stefano Vukov who was accused of being abusive throughout their time together. He was often seen as too exuberant in the players’ box, letting everyone know his views on proceedings, the opposite of serenity.  After an extended away period from the game, Rybakina announced she was joining forces with Novak Djokovic’s old coach Goran Ivanisevic.  I think this is an excellent choice.  Ivanisevic played a similar game to Rybakina and no doubt understands the transition game really well. I think he can improve her fitness and willingness to stay in rallies for longer.  Which will then allow her to take the initiative at the right moments to put pressure on her opponents. 

I said in my 2024 WTA season preview that Rybakina was not playing at her capacity, she could get even better and it’s down to her and her coaching staff.  I think now Rybakina has the right coaching staff in place.  2025 could be a good year provided she stays clear of niggling injuries.  A task for Goran Ivanisevic will be to improve her strength and conditioning to withstand the rigours of an eleven month tour.

Qinwen Zheng

Qinwen Zheng was probably the biggest story on the WTA Tour in 2024.  She showed some promise in 2023 but this year saw a complete breakout.  She has a large Chinese audience following her every move to stardom and superstardom (provided she can win major titles going forward).

Zheng started the year with a bang, reaching the final of the Australian Open, losing to defending champion Aryna Sabalenka, relatively easily. However, what was interesting is up until the final, none of Zheng’s opponents were ranked higher than 50. Not her problem of course but clearly that event was all over the place. Zheng made no real impression on the tour over the next months and her first round loss at Wimbledon was confirmation of her ordinary performances.

However, something changed, quite dramatically. This started with Zheng winning a small event in Palermo. Not sure whether it was to get match practice on clay before the Olympics, or to give her some confidence but it worked. Zheng beat Karolina Muchova in the final in three sets. This propelled Zheng to the Olympics where she played a crazy match against Angelique Kerber in the quarterfinal.  Winning a marathon which finished with a third set tiebreak. This defeat basically retired Kerber from the WTA Tour. In fact, Zheng already took out the dangerous Emma Navarro the previous round also in three sets. 

Zheng went on to defeat tournament favourite Swiatek in the semifinal in straight sets. Swiatek did not seem herself, and Zheng was able to capitalise.  Usually the higher seed comes through because the opponent cannot capitalise on their wobble. Zheng was having none of it. Zheng’s reward for her efforts was a date with Donna Vekic of Croatia in the final. Vekic is a good player and Wimbledon semifinalist but a beatable opponent and Zheng did just that.  Taking the match 6-2 6-3 and winning the gold medal for China; a massive achievement.

Zheng continued that good form into the US Open, taking out Vekic again, this time in rd. 16 but losing to Sabalenka in the quarterfinal.  Zheng lost in the semifinal of the China Open to Muchova and the Wuhan final to Sabalenka, by now her absolute nemesis… Zheng won the Pan Pacific Open in Tokyo against Sofia Kenin, a player on the comeback trail and remarkably ranked 155 on the WTA computer. This set up Zheng for the WTA finals in Riyadh.  She took out Krejcikova in the semifinal but lost a close battle to Coco Gauff in the final.

The great results in the second half of the season propelled Zheng from Top 20 to Top 5. She looks to have the capabilities to stay there, as long as she can avoid injuries and loss of form.

However, the thing that stands out in 2024 is the ambivalence of Zheng’s fellow players towards her. There definitely seems to be a collective issue with Zheng, with players “calling out” her attitude and demeanour on court. It is very strange and almost unexplainable. If a player has an issue with another player, it can be put down as one of those things. However, when multiple players seem to have an issue, you take more notice. I am not sure what the back story is behind the scenes but we will have to keep an eye on this in 2025 to see how things develop.

As for Zheng’s game, I would describe it as a bit hit and miss. Now, she has been hitting more than missing. But it doesn’t take a lot for that type of game to unravel. What Zheng needs to do is ensure she has rock solid technique, and ensure she applies enough topspin on her shots at all times. When the bad times come, the technique will keep her ranking and performances at a certain level.  If she doesn’t work on those aspects, bad form could see her fall down the rankings quick.  Let’s see if 2025 delivers a major title or a slide down the rankings.

 Other players to watch:

Jasmine Paolini

Jasmine Paolini had an incredible 2024 reaching the finals of both the French Open and Wimbledon, and finishing the year off as a Billie Jean King Cup winner for the Italians. Paolini is currently ranked number 4 but I will suggest that this is a false position which she will find difficult to maintain.  It will be hard for Paolini to win a major title but she has to give it a try.

Jessica Pegula

Pegula is the 2024 US Open finalist and once again had a solid season.  Pegula looks remarkably similar to Jennifer Capriati on the court, in both height and game style. She doesn’t have Capriati’s fire and angst.

I recall watching highlights of Pegula on YouTube at the WTA Finals against Coco Gauff. In one point she hit an excellent lob over Coco’s head. Instead of following to the net seeing Coco run to the baseline, Pegula retreated hastily to her own baseline and ended up losing the point. To me, that one moment shows she is not grand slam winning material. Lacking initiative, critical thinking, enterprise, hunger. Pegula will protest and say she has worked damn hard to get where she is. But those moments are the things that take you to a higher level. Hard work alone is not enough.

Barbora Krejcikova

Krejcikova finished the season ranked 10. She reached the semifinal of the WTA Finals and won Wimbledon in fine style, taking out Rybakina in the semifinal and Paolini in the final. Besides those highlights, Krejcikova had a patchy year, constantly coming back from injuries.  Hopefully in 2025, she can stay clear of injuries and become consistent. She is capable of winning more big titles if she can stay healthy.

Mirra Andreeva

A new teenage sensation, Andreeva made the semifinal of the French Open. However, the occasion was too big for her, and she lost easily to Paolini.  Still only 17 years old, one to watch for the future. 2025 may be a year too soon but who knows what might happen.