Previewing The 2024 WTA Season

 

We are on the eve of another season in the WTA (in fact already begun). 

It is a bit strange the season starts before the turn of the year but tennis chooses to be concertinaed so they shouldn’t turn and complain of too much tennis.. 

Having said that, 2023 was a very interesting year with the top players showing up and claiming the majority of the big tournaments. Women’s tennis is in a good place despite the obvious disquiet off the court with how the WTA Tour is run administratively. Can the players deliver again in 2024? I think so, let’s look at the players who can make the biggest waves.

Iga Swiatek:

Swiatek had a very strong finish to 2023 and will be looking to start 2024 in the same fashion. Despite the many criticisms beforehand, Swiatek dominated the WTA championships in Cancun in Mexico, winning every match in straight sets and thrashing Pegula in the final.  However, it’s a new year and a clean slate, and Swiatek will have to start all over again.

Starting with the Australian Open in January. Swiatek is yet to make a final there and has not been a factor so far in her career, thus will want to correct that.  This will not be easy as the old saying used to be that hardcourt is a leveller. Meaning, clay court specialists and grass court specialists had an opportunity to win on the surface. Those days are more or less over but there are still players who favour one surface over others, and in the main Swiatek is at her best on clay.   At the Australian Open it is more difficult because a lot more players fancy their chances of success. At the same time, Swiatek showed she can play on hardcourts with her win at the US Open in 2022.  This will be a great opportunity to show she can go far at the event in January.

Likewise Wimbledon, as Swiatek has yet to make a semifinal there either.  Swiatek is definitely struggling to adapt to grass. My opinion is the lack of a transition game is hurting her. She is not consistently able to take advantage of the short ball and come to the net to finish points.  This is something she needs to address. Also, her forehand grip seems to be a hindrance but I do not see any reason why she cannot overcome these two problems to really progress. To win at Wimbledon, she will have to overcome these two issues sufficiently.

As for the rest of 2023, Swiatek will want to consolidate her number 1 position. Win at least one 1000 level tournament, win a major away from clay and stay ahead of the pack. Those will be three of her main goals.  During 2023 I thought Swiatek’s confidence went down a bit, she was not playing diagonal tennis as much, but playing a more central (neutral) position. In my eyes her forehand is not as effective there, as her stance subconsciously switches from semi open which gives her more options, to hitting more off the backfoot which makes her forehand far less effective overall. It will be interesting to see how her confidence affects her strategy and style of play in 2024. 

Aryna Sabalenka

Sabalenka had the breakthrough season she had been dreaming of since she became a professional tennis player. Winning her first major tournament and spending weeks as number 1 in the world. Sabalenka achieved both in 2024 by winning the Australian Open in January and becoming world number 1 in September.

Two great achievements; although ironically, it could have been so much better. Sabalenka had a few opportunities to become Number 1 sooner. Particularly in July if she made the Wimbledon final. Sabalenka finally became number 1 in September in spite of losing the US Open final against Coco Gauff. Sabalenka then had a great chance to end the year as number 1 but blew her semifinal against Swiatek in Cancun. So, Sabalenka will be looking to be even stronger in 2024.

This will not be easy, as she will have to come out of the traps fast and defend her Australian Open title.  A semifinal appearance will be seen as an honourable effort, winning again will be a big bonus.  Sabalenka won 3 titles in 2023 including Madrid on clay. She can win more titles in 2024, she must aim for 5 titles at least including a major. 

Sabalenka possesses all of the attributes to be a great player. She is potentially a great grass court player, with two Wimbledon semifinal appearances in a row. Sabalenka is also very good on hardcourts.  And with her big game and serve should be a threat at the French Open.  Sabalenka has a great serve, great groundstrokes and a good transition game when she uses it, no doubt helped by being a very good doubles player. Sabalenka also has good athleticism and can defend when needed.

These attributes suggest she should be a Number 1 player consistently. But then the X factor comes into play. That X factor is nerves. Sabalenka showed in the US Open final that when nerves get to her, she could hit the ball all over the place. Some of her forehands were nearly hitting the backboard!  Intriguing how a top pro could lose control like that. Looking at it logically, those shots suggest the racquet is strung way too loose, to lose control so dramatically. But if I apply common sense, I don’t expect that from a top pro. 

Therefore, it has to be down to Sabalenka to control her shots much more often. Maybe as the coaches would say, put more “shape” on her shots. Meaning, more topspin for control, the balls need to dip in deep in the court and not sail way long. In Sabalenka’s case, maybe technical adjustments are required so when she is nervous, she doesn’t miss so sensationally badly.

That could be the difference between Sabalenka becoming a truly great player over the next five years; controlling her nerves better.

Coco Gauff

In many ways, Gauff is the big story of 2023.  Winning her first major title at the US Open when it looked like she was not ready to win such a big event. But Gauff was ready, which is the main thing.

Gauff has followed a recent trend of teenagers winning the US Open.  Matching Bianca Andreescu in 2019 and Emma Raducanu in 2021.  Before that, Maria Sharapova won as a teenager in 2006 and Svetlana Kuznetsova in 2004. It does not happen often but three times in five years is impressive.

In fact, up until the summer hardcourt season, Gauff was not having a great year. She lost early in the Australian Open, lost badly to Swiatek in the French Open quarterfinal, then lost in the 1^st round of Wimbledon.  Thus Gauff decided to invite legendary coach Brad Gilbert to her coaching team, to provide strategic advice and motivation. Well, it worked!  She won Washington, then Cincinnati and the US Open; an incredible summer.   

What prompted such a turnaround?  During the US Open, Sky Sports US Open coverage invited Brad Gilbert for a chat and he made some interesting comments.  Gilbert said he took no notice of statistics and approached things in a much more old school fashion, what he sees with his eyes and feeling for the situation.  In an age of statistics, damn statistics, it must be refreshing for a 19-year-old to hear such a different approach. 

There were occasions when Gauff ignored Gilbert during matches and did her own thing, which is also interesting.  The US Open final was a combination of complete and utter determination by Gauff to come back from a set down, and bizarre errors from Sabalenka who at times looked more like a pub player.

This is now a great platform for Gauff to launch her career and at some point attack the number 1 ranking over the next 18 months. Gauff has already made a French Open final which shows she can play on clay.  Grass is a bit more difficult for her but doable. Overall Gauff won four tournaments in 2023 so a good return. In 2024, Gauff will no doubt have many goals. One would be to do well on clay and grass. The other would be to beat Swiatek in a grand slam tournament, which would be a huge confidence boost, should they draw each other. 2024 is also Olympic year, I am sure all top players will be targeting Olympic gold.

As for her game, Gauff has many attributes. Gauff has a strong first serve, very good backhand and is probably the best athlete on tour.  Her forehand is an issue and it is amazing she was able to win the US Open despite this.  Gauff tends to hit her forehand pivoting off the backfoot, which makes it erratic and does not get much penetration. At times she is forced too far behind the baseline as a result, making her vulnerable to attack. It is interesting how many players play this way, and are often genuine counterpunchers; relying on their speed to get them out of trouble.

Hitting off the backfoot too often is a recipe for a career of long-term injuries, especially to hip, back and wrist. I am quite frankly amazed players are coming through playing this way and it is still endorsed by coaches and analysts. The info from past decades is all there: Sergei Bruguera, Gustavo Kuerten, Guillermo Coria, Andy Murray, Amelie Mauresmo and many others suffered terrible injuries.  In the men’s game Alexander Zverev hits off the backfoot well behind the baseline and it makes no sense.

I would like to see Gauff work on her forehand technique and stance.  Gauff has stated her dream is to be a dominant number 1. However, there has never been a dominant number 1 in the history of tennis who hits their forehand off the back foot.  Can Gauff be number 1 in future? Yes. To dominate everyone and be number 1 for hundreds of weeks? Unlikely unless she modifies her techniqe and way of playing.

Regarding 2024, Gauff has the opportunity to build on her success, and win another major title. That would be good progress.

Elena Rybakina

Rybakina rounded out the Top 4 during the 2023 WTA season. Statistically, Rybakina was the least successful. Why? Well she did not win a grand slam title. However, Rybakina did make the Australian Open final, losing to Sabalenka after being a set up. Her other results in the majors were not so good. 3^rd round at the French Open, quarterfinal at Wimbledon and 3^rd round of the US Open. Rybakina did win two big titles at Indian Wells and the Foro Italico in Rome.

In many ways Rybakina flattered to deceive during 2023.  She suffered injuries at the wrong time and when her fans would have expected her to kick on and be more of a threat, she went the other way. At the same time, when I watch Rybakina play I would like her to do more on the tennis court more often. I get the impression she is playing within herself and may be holding something back; or perhaps not aware she can be an even better player than she currently is.  

There are restrictions, Rybakina stands at 1 metre 84 so movement wise not the fastest.  Hence Rybakina is not able to play defence as well as some of her opponents which can be a hindrance to winning many titles. 

Rybakina does have a great serve and can transition to net very well.  2024 should be an interesting season; if she can keep injuries to a minimum and play a lot of matches to keep sharp, there is no reason she cannot challenge to win Wimbledon.  Not sure at this stage of her credentials to win the US Open. However, as she made the Australian Open final last year, she does have it in her to win on hardcourts.  Rybakina has the added bonus of having a good head to head record against Swiatek, who clearly does not enjoy playing her.

I think Rybakina can get an extra 10% out of her game to become a real great player. It is up to her and her coaching staff to take that extra step.

Other players to watch:

Jessica Pegula

Pegula finished 2023 strongly, reaching the final of WTA championships in Cancun before getting unceremoniously thrashed 6-1 6-0 by Swiatek.  Pegula did win the Canadian Open (Rogers Cup) in August but made no impression at the four grand slam events, her best being the quarterfinal in Wimbledon. Pegula’s game, height and demeanour reminds me of Jennifer Capriati but despite being a Top 5 player, I struggle to see her as a serious contender to win a major tournament in 2024.

Ons Jabeur

We could have been talking about Jabeur in much better terms and gravitas. After taking out both Rybakina and Sabalenka in the quarterfinals and semifinals of Wimbledon, destiny seemed in her hands. Jabeur was set to be the first player from Africa to win a major tournament. Unfortunately the final against Vondrousova turned out to be a video nasty.  As someone who followed tennis closely since the 1990s, it was the first time I have seen such a poor final by a clear favourite. 

In the past the favoured player has lost finals, it happens. Marat Safin at the 2002 Australian Open against Thomas Johansson. Maria Sharapova against Serena Williams in 2004 Wimbledon.  What we haven’t seen until now was a complete capitulation due to nerves where talent had zero to do with the equation. It was a painful experience watching it.

Whether Jabeur can create another opportunity to win a major final remains to be seen.

Ludmila Samsanova

A Top 20 player who seems to have the talent to be Top 10 material and possible grand slam contender, but yet to show it at the highest level.

Karolina Muchova

Finalist at the French Open and semifinalist at the US Open.  Will be tough to repeat that in 2024.

Marketa Vondrousova

Wimbledon champion in 2023! Not sure what to make of Vondrousova as a Top 10 player.  Does she have the consistency or game to stay there for a long period of time? To do that she will need to either win a few tournaments, or get to the semis and finals consistently. She doesn’t appear to be that kind of player but happy to be proved wrong.

Special mentions for the comeback queens Naomi Osaka and Angelique Kerber, both returning after maternity leave / forced absence from the tour.