Carlos Alcaraz Serve – The Missing Link To Greatness

 

Carlos Alcaraz has won two grand slam titles and is ranked number 2 in the world. 

Any player would be happy with that but Alcaraz is not going through the best of times.  Not only did he crash out in the quarterfinal of the Australian Open to Alexander Zverev but then watched his rival Jannik Sinner win his first major title. Sinner coming from two sets down in the final against Danill Medvedev.

Surprisingly Alcaraz has lost every important match he has played since his Wimbledon triumph last July, losing to all of his main rivals on the ATP Tour.

In Cincinnati, Alcaraz lost the final to Djokovic which lasted almost four hours when Djokovic looked dead on his feet after 30 minutes! Yet still managed to win the match hours later.  Alcaraz then went on to lose the US Open semi final to Daniil Medvedev in four sets when he was defending champion.

As the autumn rolled along Alcaraz lost to Grigor Dimitrov in the round of 16 in the Shanghai Masters.  Then in the much-anticipated semifinal of the ATP World Tour championships, Alcaraz went down rather meekly to Djokovic in straight sets. 

Alcaraz’s defeat to Zverev in the quarterfinal of the Australian Open is part of a trend. An underlying issue which goes under the radar, probably due to his style of play. 

Now, of course Alcaraz is still only 20 years old and is having the inevitable dip since his meteoric rise to number 1.  This dip arises from a few factors in no absolute order; media pressure, fan pressure, and opponents working out his game.  In that scenario, for every top elite professional who plays sport, they need to keep improving and add elements to their game to stay ahead of the pack. 

The reasons behind Alcaraz’s rise to be first male teenage number 1 in 2022 are undisputed. He has a complete game; he can attack and defend, with elite athleticism and speed. Those attributes take you to the top quick.  Thanks to this, big things are predicted for Alcaraz but he has put unnecessary pressure on himself by declaring he wants to be the best in history. Unusual for a 20-year-old to make such a declaration and perhaps an unwise move. 

To be among the greatest everything has to work. And there is one area which was slightly neglected when his game was constructed as a junior; the serve. As of now, Alcaraz has a world class game but not a world class serve.  Alcaraz generally uses his serve to set up the point, to start off a rally or be in an offensive position.  Classic clay court philosophy, as clay is generally not conducive to serving a lot of aces and un-returnables.  With hardcourts generally slower and indoor carpet off the tour since the late 2000s, understandable that elite younger players do not work to perfect the serve as much as past players.

Collectively the serves of Next Gen and Gen Z players are very good but not top quality. Stefanos Tsitsipas, Holge Rune, Andrey Rublev come into this category.  Sinner has been working hard to improve his serve to make it a weapon. However, if Alcaraz wants to go down as the greatest, having a serve which is not top quality will be a hindrance to his quest.  Let us get the elephant out of the room, as some people reading this will say his serve is great, he wins matches. This is all true but the statistics will reveal certain information.  Let’s look at those statistics in isolation.

Citing ATP statistics, in the 2023 season Alcaraz had a 1st serve percentage of 66%.  Alcaraz won 72% of his 1st serves and 56% of his 2nd serves. Alcaraz also hit 302 aces throughout the course of the season.  To round off, Alcaraz saved 65% of break points faced.

https://www.atptour.com/en/players/Carlos-Alcaraz/A0E2/player-stats

Besides a very good 1st serve percentage, other aspects of those figures are not the best. With 72% points won on 1st serve, he won less than three quarters of those points.  56% of points won on 2nd serve is good but 302 aces for a full season is quite low.  In the 2019 season on the WTA Tour, Ashleigh Barty hit over 400 aces, where all WTA matches are best of 3 sets including grand slam tournaments. In 2021, Barty hit 325 aces in 49 matches.

As for Alcaraz’s return game, in 2023 he won 32% of those. That’s a good percentage for a top player but I feel Alcaraz needs to do that.  However, unlike in the WTA Tour, in the men’s game it is relatively more difficult to keep breaking serve if you get broken yourself.

These statistics confirm what my “eye test” has been observing for some time. Which is in the biggest matches, Alcaraz is consistently struggling to hold serve against the best players.  This is a big problem for him.  Alcaraz needs to raise his 1st serve points won to 75% and above.   

Ironically, these stats show precisely the reason Alcaraz is so loved by fans and media. He hits outrageous and flashy shots on virtually every service game he plays.  This is not sustainable for a long career, where he often has to stretch every sinew to come up with something spectacular. He is at a crossroads, even this early in his career.  Alcaraz has to considerably improve his serving statistics, but the question is how to do it.

Alcaraz could take to the practice court and work on serve placement. As of now his serve is in straight lines, it is not moving around enough in the service box.  He does not have the lefty advantage of Nadal who can swing the ball away from the returners’ forehand.  Alcaraz needs to find more aces and unreturnables.  He is not the tallest but that shouldn’t be a big issue. Barty was short by WTA standards but with excellent placement, technique and timing delivered many aces. Speed is not the issue, placement and deception plus speed are the order of the day.

Alcaraz should also look to vary his serve much more and not overly rely on the kick serve. Improving his serve will improve his overall confidence. If he can hold serve more easily, he can go after the return of serve with more relaxation.

What we can deduce is with Alcaraz’s current serve and statistics, he is not on course to become the greatest player in history.  In fact, it will be an almighty struggle to win up to 10 major tournaments.  Pete Sampras and Roger Federer used their all-court game, good defence and elite athleticism and based their whole game around their serve.

The statistics show both Sampras and Federer consistently won around 80% of 1st serve points and consistently over 50% of 2nd serve points. That’s a much better package to dominating opponents. One important feature of both Sampras and Federer is that they won service games quickly and efficiently, rushing their opponents. Many of their big finals were won in straight sets.

Djokovic is different as he able to dominate by consistently winning 75% of 1st serve points and 55% of 2nd serve points. However, Djokovic is a steadier player and will not make as many errors as an all court attacking player, it does not need to be 80% for Djokovic.  Playmakers like Alcaraz need a higher percentage.

Coach Juan Carlos Ferrero proclaimed Alcaraz is a hybrid of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. A compliment and potential burden.  Each of those three players have their own way. Alcaraz will at some point have to find his own identity. That means forming his own game plan, finding patterns that work and sticking to them over a period of time.

His current serving stats leaves him on course to win up to 5 majors if everything goes well in his career. To win more than 10, he will have to improve those serving statistics. To date only eight players in over one hundred years of tennis have won more than 10 major tournaments.

He has the talent to do it, now for the application and practice.