WTA Young Players To Watch - 2016

Madison Keys

The 2015 season was a remarkable one. Serena Williams at the age of 34 was within two matches of a calendar grand slam; and with Flavia Pennetta winning the US Open, all grand slam tournaments were won by players age 33 years or older, which has to be a record for the open era.

The implications are significant, as in the mens game, the upcoming players have been completely shut out of an opportunity to win the biggest tournaments.  However, we have to think that younger players will come through soon.  It is worth taking a look at some of the young players under the age of 25 who could be contenders at the major tournaments in 2016. 

Garbiñe Muguruza age 22; End of Year Rank 3

Garbiñe is definitely one of the players identified to be a future champion and maybe a future number 1 player.  Garbiñe is not the typical Spanish player, at 6 ft. tall and powerfully built, Garbiñe has a game that is tailor made for hardcourts with the big serve and powerful groundstrokes.  Garbiñe won one tournament this year in Beijing and reached the final in Wuhan where she had to retire hurt against Venus Williams. Garbiñe also made it to the final of Wimbledon and gave Serena Williams a run for her money before losing in straight sets. In fact, Garbiñe game reminds me of a female version of a young Marat Safin from the early 2000s.

This comparison is apt because during the course of the recent WTA championships in Singapore, Garbiñe looked unbeatable against players who were unable to deal with her power and pace winning all of her round robin matches including against Petra Kvitova. Angelique Kerber looked thoroughly fed up after her defeat to Garbiñe in the round robin, having already lost to her in the round of 32 at both the French Open and Wimbledon plus the quarterfinal of Wuhan.   However, in the semifinal Garbiñe suffered a very surprising loss to Agnieszka Radwanska in three sets despite winning the first set on a tiebreak.  I would have made Garbiñe odds on to win the tournament but it wasn’t to be.  And this is where the comparison with Safin comes in, Safin would look unbeatable when he was on his game and displayed power and pace which many opponents couldn’t deal with.  However, Safin was very inconsistent and couldn’t sustain a high level for long periods of time.  So far Garbiñe displays similar traits.

In 2016 Garbiñe should be a contender at all of the grand slam tournaments, her run at Wimbledon proved to herself she can play on grass.  Garbiñe also has to win more tournaments on the WTA tour, which in turn will give her more confidence at the grand slam events.  As with so many of the modern players, Garbiñe likes to transition to net and play aggressive, really going after short balls.  Alas, as with so many modern players, when she gets up to net her volleys and decision making is not very good at this stage, I have seen her hit swing volleys out when conventional volleys would have worked fine.  With the grip players’ use and the powerful Babolat racquet, players like Garbiñe don’t switch to the best grip in time to make the swing volley count. Assuming Garbiñe continues to improve her game and movement, she has a great opportunity to win a grand slam tournament in 2016 if everything falls into place.

Karolina Pliskova – Age 23; End of Year Rank 11

Karolina Pliskova has had her best season to date in her young career.  Karolina finished the season on an absolute high, helping the Czech Republic to beat Russia to defend their Federation cup title.  Not only that, but Karolina played a significant role, first helping the Czechs to level the tie when they were 2:1 down with a win against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and then teaming up with Barbara Strykova to win the decisive doubles match against Elena Vesnina and Pavlyuchenkova.  No doubt Karolina’s confidence will be sky high after this experience.

Before the week of the Fed cup, Karolina made it through to the final of the season ending WTA Elite Trophy in Zhuhai China, which is the level below the WTA Championships in Singapore.  Karolina lost a very tight match 5:7 6:7 to Venus Williams but played very well.  All in all, in 2015 Karolina made it to the final of six tournaments; winning in Prague on outdoor clay; whilst reaching the finals of Zhuhai which we mentioned, Sydney, Dubai, Birmingham and Stanford.  Karolina also made the semifinals in Antwerp and Tiajin.  Karolina didn’t do as well at the majors, her best result was Round of 32 at the Australian Open where she lost to Ekaterina Makarova, so improvement required there.

Karolina is another archetypal modern player at 1metre 87, (6 ft. 1) with a big game.  I watched Karolina play many matches throughout this year and there is no question she is a talented player who has a big future if she continues to improve.  My concern has been that too often Karolina’s game can be quite hit and miss, great shots mixed in with often unnecessary bad errors and wild shot making, not very consistent.  Also, at 6ft 1, Karolina is not one of the best movers and is a little slow to react when having to come forward or stretched wide.  Karolina does have one of the best serves on the tour which you would expect at her height, capable of hitting many aces and unreturnables. 

What impressed me most about Karolina in her last two events was her ability to play aggressive but at a much more consistent level; she played a really good final against Venus in Zhunhai and was absolutely splendid in the Fed cup final ties.  If Karolina builds on this Fed cup success and improves her temperment and movement around the court, she definitely has the game to be a future champion.  Next year may be too soon because it is a huge jump from making the last 32 of major tournaments to potentially winning one, but she is on the right track.

Madison Keys – Age 20; End of Year Rank 18

Last year I saw Madison Keys win her first title in the final of Eastbourne beating Angelique Kerber in three sets; it was a great match which Keys won 7:5 in the third.  Madison followed that up by starting 2015 very well, reaching the Australian Open semifinal beating Petra Kvitova and Venus Williams along the way, before losing to Serena Williams in a tight match. Madison also made it to the final of Charleston where she lost to Angelique Kerber in three sets, Kerber getting her back for the Eastbourne loss.  Since April I haven’t heard much from Madison Keys in any of the bigger tournaments.

Madison had decent results at the majors, making the 3rd round of the French Open and the quarterfinal of Wimbledon where she lost to Agnieszka Radwanska.  In the US Open Madison lost to Serena Williams in the 4th round.  At the season ending tournament in Zhunhai, Madison lost to Venus but beat Saisai Zheng; however, Madison didn’t win any titles in 2015 so she will want to rectify that in 2016.  The good news is that Madison is currently coached by American great Lindsay Davenport.  As long as they continue to work together for the foreseeable future, I see Madison really challenging for major titles soon.  Outside of Serena Williams, Madison has potentially the best serve in the womens tour, her first serve can be delivered upwards of 120mph on the line, and her 2nd serve has quite a kick.

As with Garbine and Karolina, Madison is capable of making some wild errors, which is very much the modern way of playing in the womens game, I often wonder if it is due to lighter modern racquets and polyester strings.  I think Lindsay should help in that department as initially Lindsay had trouble been a consistent player herself when she was a teenager, but managed to lose weight, improve her movement and improve her consistency.  From that point of view, Lindsay should be able to teach Madison some tactical plays and how to use her serve to good effect, and improve her movement.  The key is whether Madison is willing to learn from such a great player as Lindsay Davenport and really work hard on her movement and tactical play.  If Madison is a quick learner, she has the game to win a major title in 2016.  I hope this happens because when you see a player with such raw talent, you want to see them show it to everyone by winning major tournaments.

Simona Halep Age 24; End of Year Rank 2

It is fair to say Simona is an established player as opposed to an up and coming but makes the cut for me as she is under 25 years old and still attempting to become a major champion.

In 2015 Simona’s best result came at Indian Wells where she won the event against Jelena Jankovic in one of the most topsy turvy matches I have seen in a long time.  What amazed me the most was the Presentation ceremony, Simona is so little she barely made it above the lectern to deliver her victory speech.  At 1metre 70 (5ft. 6) Simona is one of the shorter players on the tour so it is a credit to her to be one of the best players in the world.  All in all, Simona won three titles including Shenzhen and Dubai but all of her titles came before the spring and she really struggled to make an impact for the rest of the year, only making the final of Cincinnati.  In the majors Simona’s best result was reaching the semifinal of the US Open where she lost fairly easily to Flavia Pennetta.  At the WTA championships in Singapore, Simona lost two of her three round robin matches so not the best way to finish the season. 

With such a high ranking, Simona has to be a contender at all of the major championships in 2016.  A friend of mine believes what is holding her back is her nerves, Simona gets very nervous in the big matches, as evidenced in the Indian Wells final back in March, which she won but in dubious fashion in the end.  However, I think Simona’s challenges run much deeper.  I don’t think Simona can win a major championship until she realises she has to stop running side to side all day and start improving her transition game and come forward to finish points at the net.  Simona is one of the best at hitting down the lines but seems never prepared to take advantage of stretching her opponent by coming to net.  It gives the impression Simona doesn’t like to take any risks of being passed, but also it means she has to do even more running and therefore not conserving energy, right now Simona is not playing as efficiently as she could.  Simona says Justine Henin was her idol; Simona really needs to study Justine’s game and look at how often Justine was prepared to use her athleticism around the net as well as having great defence.  If Simona can improve this vital aspect of her game, she has the talent to win more than one major title.

Other players to look out for in 2016

Belinda Bencic Age 18; End of Year Rank 14

At age 18 Belinda Bencic is the youngest player in the top 20.  In June she won her first title at Eastbourne defeating Agnieszka Radwanska in three sets and won the Canadian Open final in the summer beating Serena Williams along the way.  She may be a dark horse at the major tournaments in 2016.

Sloane Stephens Age 22; End of Year Rank 30

A talented player who won her first WTA title in 2015 in Washington DC beating Pavlyuchenkova.  Sloane is going through one of those phases where she is off the radar somewhat but she is too talented not to come back into the reckoning at some point.

Eugenie Bouchard Age 21; End of Year Rank 49

It is fair to say that since Bouchard took a heavy beating in the 2014 Wimbledon final, her career has taken a nosedive.  Perhaps things came too quickly for her, but she also got a rude awakening in the final, I don’t follow the bookmakers but the media seemed to make her favourite (more to the point that the media just wanted her to win than any reason based on sound analysis).  Kvitova showed her what it takes to win at the highest level.  Now that Bouchard has had those unfortunate incidents during Fed cup ties and hitting her head in the US Open locker room, it could be some time before she gets back into the top 10 but she has the talent to do it.

Davis Cup Finals: Surface Mishaps

The tennis world has applauded Great Britain making it through to their first Davis cup final since 1978, with the opportunity to be crowned champions for the first time since 1936!  Great Britain go in as favourites against Belgium with Andy Murray being the difference maker, while Belgium have chosen indoor clay as the surface of choice, rather unsurprisingly.  This intrigues me as the Davis cup final is littered with examples of a home nation choosing a surface to negate the opposition but backfiring spectacularly, let us look at some recent scenarios.

1995 Russia v USA

1995 was the year of the super squad, with the Americans boasting the two top players in the world who traded the number 1 position all year. Legend has it that at the start of 1995, Agassi and Sampras told Captain Tom Gullickson one would only play if the other was playing!  For back up, the Americans boasted Jim Courier, Michael Chang, Todd Martin and doubles specialists in Richie Renenberg.  The Russians despite having Yvefgeny Kafelnikov and Andre Chesnokov knew they were underdogs, so chose indoor clay in the Olympic stadium, ensuring the clay was watered and as slow as humanly possible to play on; all designed to put the hardcourt specialists of the Americans off their game. 

The first rubber between Sampras and Chesnokov was a gruelling affair which Sampras took 6-4 in the fifth; the match point was especially dramatic as Sampras collapsed and had to be carried off the court like a war veteran! Kafelnikov squared the tie beating Jim Courier in straight sets; Courier stood in for Agassi who was carrying an injury and couldn’t play the final.  Much to everyone’s surprise, Sampras came out the next day and played doubles with Todd Martin against Kafelnikov and Ohlhosky and won in straight sets to put the Americans ahead 2-1 in the final. In the reverse singles, Sampras beat Kafelnikov in straight sets to seal the Davis cup triumph against the odds of injury to Agassi and near exhaustion to Sampras.

Looking back, choosing an indoor hardcourt would probably have been a better option.

1999 France v Australia

Four years after Russia chose indoor clay which backfired; France decided to choose the same surface against Australia in Nice.  With Pat Rafter, Lleyton Hewitt, Mark Philippoussis and the number 1 doubles pair of Mark Woodforde and Todd Woodbridge, the French figured the only way to slow Australia down was to choose slow red clay.  Rafter couldn’t play the event because of shoulder trouble so Philippoussis stepped up, winning both of his rubbers against Sebastian Grosjean and then decisively in four sets against Cedric Pioline; after Mark Woodforde and Todd Woodbridge gave Australia the advantage on the middle Saturday. 

In fact, France were not able to take Australia to five sets in any of the rubbers that mattered.  The scoreline appeared more respectable as Sebastien Grosjean defeated Lleyton Hewitt in straight sets in the dead rubber.  However, it was Australia’s first Davis cup triumph since the 1980s when they boasted players such as Pat Cash, John Fitzgerald, Paul McNamee and Wally Masur.  As for France, it was a strange decision, considering they beat the mighty United States in the 1991 Davis cup final on a quick indoor court.

2001 Australia v France

In 2001 it was Australia’s turn to host the final as France hosted their 1999 encounter. Naturally, France were looking for revenge but Australia figured they held the trump card with choice of surface; this time the Aussies chose fast grass, their favourite. The only problem was, nobody told the committee French players have always preferred fast grass to slow clay!  Cedric Pioline played the Wimbledon final in 1997, more recently Grosjean, Gasquet and Tsonga have all played in Wimbledon semifinals.  In the womens game, Natalie Tauziat played the Wimbledon final in 1998, Amelie Mauresmo won Wimbledon in 2006 and Marion Bartoli in 2013.

Back to 2001, Australia certainly had the grass court specialists so on the face of it looked a good decision.  The final was held in Melbourne Park, home of the Australian Open.  The first day ended 1:1 with Nicholas Escude defeating Lleyton Hewitt in five sets and Pat Rafter defeating Sebastian Grosjean in straight sets.  The doubles however went the way of the French with Pioline and Santoro defeating Hewitt and Rafter in four sets.  However, for the reverse singles Pat Rafter’s injuries’ flared up again and was not able to play.  Australia came back into the tie with Lleyton Hewitt defeating Sebastien Grosjean meaning it all came down to the final rubber, with Wayne Arthurs standing in for Rafter to play Nicholas Escude. Escude was a strong player with a good grass court record, having run Andre Agassi close in the Wimbledon quarterfinal that year.  Unfortunately for Australia, Escude played an inspired match and exacted revenge on the Aussies’ favourite surface.

2002 France v Russia

It’s fair to say some simply do not learn their lesson; that will apply to France.  In 1991 and 1996 when France won the Davis cup, on each occasion they triumphed on quick indoor surfaces. However, France were up to their crazy tricks again, deciding to choose slow indoor clay when they had no players who would be considered clay court specialists.  I can only assume it was to negate the hardcourt prowess of Safin and Kafelnikov.  The tie was played in Paris Bercy home of the annual Masters tournament.  After day 1, the tie was even with Safin beating Paul Henri Mattheu in four sets, whilst Grosjean defeated a laboured Kafelnikov in straight sets.  The doubles rubber went to France with Escude and Santoro defeating Kafelnikov and Safin five sets.

Consequently as so often in Davis cup, it all came down to the reverse singles.  Safin got the Russians back in the tie with a straight sets victory over Sebastien Grosjean, therefore, all French eyes were on Paul Henri Mattheu to take France home against Mikael Youzhny, who stood in for a “crocked” Kafelnikov.  Back in 2002 I thought Mattheu was a promising young player who might have a good career.  Mattheu went two sets up and everything was looking good, but inexplicably folded as Youhzny came back to win in five sets, and Russia won the Davis cup for the first time in front of a huge French crowd.  Sadly for Mattheu, that defeat finished his career before it began, he never recovered from that loss and became a journeyman player who compiled a dreadful five set losing record for the rest of his career.

2014 France v Switzerland

Here we go again with the French.  It is ironic that France is the home of the clay grand slam tournament, and yet France cannot produce clay court specialists.  However, the French decided again not to fight fire with fire but to wave the white flag before the tie was played; that was my feeling before the match with the choice of surface and that’s how it proved.  France had six players at their disposal against essentially a two man Swiss team.  In fact, Roger Federer was not at his best having withdrawn from the ATP World final a few days prior with a bad back; theoretically France should have liked their chances.  The only problem was, the two Swiss players were grand slam champions and France had no champions, a huge mental block.

In the first singles, Warwinka took care of Tsonga in four sets; however Monfils beat Federer quite easily in straight sets.  The two man team of Switzerland came back on the Saturday and defeated Benneteau and Gasquet in three very straightforward sets.  In the reverse singles, Gasquet stood in for the injured Tsonga, which made no difference as Federer won in three easy sets to win the tie three rubbers to one; despite the fact that France played in front of a record tennis crowd in Lille, had six players to choose from and Federer suffering from a back problem.  For some unknown reason, well only to the French federation, they seem paralysed to take on opponents on a surface that would favour themselves as well as the opposition.

Novak Djokovic's Becker Influence

There has been a lot of talk about Novak Djokovic’s association with Boris Becker since his appointment as coach in December 2013.

At the time of the appointment, fans on tennis forums and social media expressed surprise, many ex tennis players and pundits expressed surprise.  If appears that even Boris Becker was surprised that he was asked and then appointed to the job.  The main focus has been what exactly Becker has brought to the table in terms of improvement.  When I watch interviews involving Novak the focus tends to be on Becker being there, knowing what it is like at key moments in a grand slam final, and can provide positivity to him. Before Boris’ appointment at the end of 2013, Novak lost three grand slam finals, two semifinals and his number 1 ranking to Rafael Nadal in a twelve month period.  However, Becker must provide much more than what they let on in the media and what the press tend to report (we know the Press love to simplify things).  Let us take a look at some of the areas where I feel Novak has improved and where Becker has made a difference.

The Serve

This is one department where you would expect Becker to have an influence; Becker had one of the best serves in his era and is considered one of the best servers in tennis history.  I saw Djokovic play in the 2007 French Open quarterfinal and he had a very good serve then, with good pace and well placed into the corners.  By the 2009 that all changed with Djokovic having issues with his nerves, bouncing the ball upwards of 20 times before delivering a 2nd serve; and former top 10 player Todd Martin persuading him to change his service action.  This led to the accusations we see so often in tennis by impatient fans and media, that Djokovic was a “one slam wonder” who didn’t have what it takes to win another major title.  Djokovic also moved from Wilson to Head and it always takes time to get used to a new racquet. Djokovic dispensed with Todd Martin’s services in 2010 and his career really took off in 2011, winning three majors and attaining the number 1 ranking for the first time.  

Djokovic now has a very reliable serve, not the fastest by any stretch but often well placed into the corners and capable of delivering aces.  The area where I feel Becker has made a big difference is the 2nd serve.  Djokovic was never known for having a 2nd serve of any distinction but there is no question that Djokovic now has one of the best 2nd deliveries in tennis, and perfect for grass.  The statistics in the Wimbledon final showed that against Roger Federer, Djokovic won 60% of his 2nd serve points which is very high indeed for a final.  As well, Djokovic’s average speed on the 2nd serve throughout the match was 96mph and his fastest serve was 111mph.  In fact, many serves were over 100mph on both deuce and ad courts, often moving away from Federer or with slice into the body, deep or close to the line.  Very intelligent serving which makes it very difficult to attack.   This is one of the key reasons why Federer could not get into Djokovic’s serving games like he could against Andy Murray, who averages around 75mph with serves often in the middle of the box, making him vulnerable to attack.  I think Becker should be given credit for persuading Djokovic to go after his 2nd serves more than he did in previous major finals

Transition Game

This is another area where Becker was brought in to help Djokovic improve.  Djokovic was already aware that he was playing too passive in many of the big matches in 2012 and 2013.  During the Wimbledon final against Andy Murray, Djokovic knew he needed to shorten the points but seemed unsure about how to implement that strategy.  There is no doubt in my mind that Becker has helped to improve Djokovic’s transition game considerably.  Djokovic is never going to have the best volley on the tour but he can choose when to hit approach shots and come in, or serve volley at occasional moments.  A perfect example was the French Open semifinal against Murray, when he took over the match in the fifth set by constantly hitting big shots and finishing points off with a smash at the net.  In the Wimbledon semifinal against Gasquet, Djokovic came to net 39 times and won 26 points.  In the final, he came to net 34 times and won 20 points, a conversion rate of just under 60% so not the best rate by any means but Djokovic knew he had to mix things up against Federer. 

Djokovic’s net approaches now seem more assured than during 2012 through 2013, during that period many of his forays smacked of desperation, example serving and volleying on 2nd serves out of the blue during the 2013 Wimbledon final.  However, Becker is clearly using his experience of the transition game and providing guidance to Novak of the best moments to attack the net.  Djokovic has superior athleticism so theoretically he should be very good around the net.  In modern tennis where most of the game is played behind the baseline, the number 1 player still has to possess a very good transition game; otherwise he will not be able to stay in the position of number 1 position for very long.

Mental Game

This is an area which has really gone up a notch in the last 12 to 18 months.  Djokovic dominates the ATP tour like no other player since Roger Federer in the mid-2000s.  At the moment there are two tours, one with Djokovic in which he gets to choose where and when he wants to play, and a tour for all of the other players who have to play in smaller events to accrue points and confidence.  Djokovic is able to only play the Masters and grand slam tournaments plus Dubai and Beijing.  This is unprecedented in the history of the ATP tour but is possible due to the current points system. A perfect case in point; Djokovic didn’t play any warm up tournaments, and still won Wimbledon fairly comfortably, only challenged in the fourth round when he was two sets down to Kevin Anderson. 

On the tour itself, Novak has won virtually every tournament he has entered or at least made the final, incredible consistency on all surfaces.  He hasn’t lost an indoor match since November 2012.  To me a player’s indoor record really marks how good a player they really are.  Incidentally, Boris Becker is considered among the best indoor players in history along with Ivan Lendl, John McEnroe, Pete Sampras and Roger Federer, Djokovic has joined that club.  It is very difficult to be that consistent all year round, so again credit has to be given to Boris Becker for channelling Novak’s consistency in the right areas, finishing matches as quickly as possible, whilst keeping points fairly short on a number of occasions. Let us remember, Djokovic has been considered a grinder, some of his matches against Nadal and Andy Murray have been north of five hours long.  There is no way he could get to 30 years of age and stay at the top playing that kind of game.  Djokovic plays a much smarter game now which allows him to stay ahead of the pack.  As a player Becker enjoyed the baseline duels against Wilander, Lendl, Chang and Sampras, but he was also the master of the short points, putting his serve in the right areas and then taking control, Novak is now much better at these tactics than he was two years ago.

One area which intrigued me before the Wimbledon final was whether Djokovic would have served first if he won the toss. Djokovic backs himself as the best player in the world; I would say he would have served first given the opportunity, learning from Murray’s poor decision in the semifinal.

 

Conclusion

The most important lesson about analysing Djokovic’s improvement under Boris Becker is this:  the players who have kept working on improving their game both tactically and mentally have improved and kept winning.  The players who have stagnated have not challenged consistently.  My previous article on Stan Warwinka and now Novak Djokovic shows that these two players along with Roger Federer have consistently looked for ways to improve their game.  It is good to see.