Where are the Next Generation?

It is spring 2013 and we are finally escaping the heart of a prolonged winter.  Traditionally at this juncture of a decade, a new generation has fully emerged and taken over the top of the world rankings.

This has certainly happened over the last 3 decades.  In spring 1983, John McEnroe was the clear number 1 and Ivan Lendl was close behind challenging for major titles.  In spring 1993, Pete Sampras had just taken over the number 1 position from Jim Courier.  And in spring 2003, Lleyton Hewiit was clear number 1.  Hewitt would lose that position later that year to Andy Roddick who then ceded to Roger Federer.

However, in spring 2013, the rankings have a familiar feel to them, a different man is at the top but it feels like a shuffling of musical chairs.  That’s because the same guys have been top 5 since 2008. 

Now you can argue that Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic are the new generation who are set who are set to dominate the game and challenge for the major titles.  But I see them as the mid generation.  Murray and Djokovic will turn 26 next month during May; in fact, Murray won the junior US Open in 2004 almost 9 years ago.  Djokovic played his first US Open final in 2007.  These two players are the same generation of Nadal, Tsonga, Berdych, Gasquet and Giles Simon.

Looking back to history in 1993, Boris Becker was 25 and Stefan Edberg was 26 and yet as both had achieved so much at a young age, were seen almost as veterans but were only 3 to 5 years older than the new generation of Sampras, Courier, Chang, Muster, Brugera, Krajicek and Ivanisevic; In fact, Becker was only two years older than Agassi.  The new generation removed the mid generation relatively quickly from the very top of the rankings.

In the 1980s, Mats Wilander, Pat Cash, Yannick Noah, Edberg and Becker came through to challenge McEnroe and Lendl.

However, for the first time in living memory, there appears to be no challengers to the top 4 on the horizon or indeed any impression that players like Tsonga, Berdych or Gasquet will break through to win a major title. And injuries have set Juan Martin Del Potro back two years. 

So the question is, who are the new generation and when will they challenge for Masters 1000 and major titles?  Players should be no older than 22 years of age to be classified as the new generation.  The up and coming players who would fall under that tag are Milos Raonic, Grigor Dimitrov, Bernard Tomic and Ryan Harrison. Other than these guys, I cannot think of any other players who would be considered as “promising”. 

In fact, none of the players here have won a tournament above ATP 250 level so far in their careers. That’s not to say they won’t because at some point in the future, someone will have to win the bigger titles.  But by now you would have thought collectively they would have made a bigger impression at Masters and Grand Slam level.  Rewinding to spring 2003, players like Hewitt, Safin, Roddick, Federer, Nalbandian and Juan Carlos Ferrero were already winning important tournaments at masters level, Hewitt and Safin were major champions, later that year Ferrero, Federer and Roddick would win the three remaining major titles on offer. 

So why have these players not made a bigger impression so far?  It could be that they are just not ready, or maybe they haven’t got what it takes to take their game to the next level.  The interesting player for me is Bernard Tomic, who plays an “interesting” game of forehand slices and not really making things happen’ it often appears like a junior game played by a senior, I don’t think that will cut it at the top level. 

Milos Raonic certainly has the biggest serve in the game today, in the tradition of Richard Krajicek, Goran Ivanisevic and Michael Stich.  He is talented and plays an aggressive game but at 1metre 96cm tall has to work hard on his movement and return of serve to get to the next level.  This makes Eurosport’s headline of calling Raonic the next Pete Sampras extremely wide of the mark because of his serve, especially as Sampras’ game was all about movement and skill.

Dimitrov is a player a lot of fans are pinning their hopes on to succeed Roger Federer, as he has modelled his game on Federer with the one hand backhand and Wilson racquet.  Federer won junior Wimbledon in 1998 and Dmitrov won junior Wimbledon in 2008. However, at this stage Dmitrov is in danger of having a career in the fashion of a Richard Gasquet. 

In my previous article re slow courts changing womens tennis, Eurosport commentator Simon Reed answered some questions on that subject but he also made an interesting comment to me about Grigor Dmitrov “I’d love to see Grigor Dimitrov break into the top 10 but I’ve waited too long ..this has to be the year. It would be great for tennis to see someone like Dimitrov with real skill in the latter stages of tournaments. That’s especially important if and when Federer calls it a day.”

It’s also said that the physical nature of the game is making it harder for younger players to make an impression on the tour and climb up the rankings relatively quickly.  For sure, it has become harder than ever to penetrate the top 5, which has become a closed shop in recent times.  That along with the constant altering of the points system where players get more points than ever for winning the top prizes.  To illustrate how things have moved on, in 1994 the winner of Miami (Sampras) got 350 points, in 2013 Murray received 1000 points.  Only the experienced players are now in a position to do that on a consistent basis.

At some point during the decade of the 2010s, a new generation will emerge to challenge and take over the established order.  Unlike the last 3 decades, tennis fans will have to wait longer to see a new batch of faces contending for and winning the biggest titles.