Previewing the 2020 WTA season

We have reached the end of 2019 and entered a brand new decade. A good opportunity to take our annual look at the WTA players who will be key protagonists in 2020.

Unlike in the men’s game, the transition to the new generation has already taken place. In 2019 three of the four major championships were won by players under the age of twenty four,  Naomi Osaka already has two major titles to her credit, whilst Ashleigh Barty finished the year as world number 1, French Open and WTA champion. Therefore, it is fair to say the WTA tour is in good hands going into the 2020s.

Ashleigh Barty

There is no better place to start our preview than with the current world number 1. Ashleigh (or Ash as she prefers to be called) had a superb 2019, initially reaching the final of Sydney international and the quarterfinal of the Australian Open in January. Ash followed that up with a big win at the Miami Open, then her major title at the French Open defeating Markéta Vondroušová in the final. Ash then went on to win the Birmingham Classic on grass before losing in the fourth round of Wimbledon to Alison Riske. Ash also reached the fourth round of the US Open but came back strong in October to win the WTA finals in Shenzen, defeating Elina Svitolina in straight sets.  For good measure, Ash also won the Italian Open doubles partnering with Victoria Azarenka and finished as runner up in the Federation Cup final, just falling short against France.  Ash also finished runner up with Victoria at the US Open doubles final losing to Aryna Sabalemka and Elise Mertens.

Ash is relatively short player, standing at 1 m 66 (5 ft. 6 inches). To get to number 1 at that height is a great achievement, and underlines the folly of predictions. At the turn of the millennium twenty years ago, pundits were predicting only female players over the height of 1 metre 80 plus would win major titles. That prediction was bucked pretty quickly by Justine Henin in the mid 2000s and now Ash Barty. Not only that, Ash also took time out of tennis to play big bash cricket in Australia in 2016!  Ash re-found her love for tennis and returned to the sport, which is clearly tennis’ gain. Ash has great variety, probably the most variety of the top players today, using the slice backhand more than any other player since Roberta Vinci and has very good volleying skills and a good overhead. That variety of game was a great bonus during her French Open run although everyone expects her to do well at Wimbledon eventually.

As for 2020, it is hard to predict what will happen as with the other top players; Ash is very young so we do not know how she will react to starting the year as number 1 and considered favourite to win the Australian Open in front of her home crowd.  Ash has the game to be a contender for the next five to ten years and win many tournaments and possibly a few majors.  I am not sure she has the game to dominate the tour as her backhand needs to improve; she has a similar game and backhand to Sam Stosur, albeit with more variety and more natural talent. Having said that, I get the impression Ash is the sort of player who would be content with winning titles and not necessarily be too concerned about being number 1 every week of the year.

Naomi Osaka

What an interesting 2019 for Naomi Osaka. Naomi began 2019 like a house on fire winning the Australian Open final with a great victory over Petra Kvitova, to back up her win at the US Open just three months prior.  After her Australian win, her game virtually fell off a metaphorical cliff and she was a non-factor for more or less the next nine months, however Naomi managed to salvage something by winning the China Open in September defeating Ashleigh Barty in three sets and finishing the year in the top three. 

The first signs that things were not going to plan came when Naomi unceremoniously “sacked” her coach Sasha Bajin without ever going into the reasons why in any depth, leading to lots of speculation. I then watched Naomi lose her first match in Dubai after Australia, going down relatively easily to Kristina Mladenovic. That would prove to be the pattern for the rest of the season on all surfaces, whether clay, grass or hardcourts.  So, the simple question is, what happened?  How could it go so wrong so quickly after such a dramatic rise to superstardom?

I think there are a number of factors. The first being that her US Open win in 2018 over Serena Williams was welcome if unexpected. Naomi played a great semi-final against Madison Keys and an even better final against Serena Williams.  After defeating Petra Kvitova to win two majors in a row, great things were predicted. However, the reality is that Naomi was not ready to deal with the status of being a major champion and world number 1.  Naomi was not ready from an emotional standpoint, dealing with the media, sponsorship, fan expectations and players trying harder against her. This was exacerbated further by the fact that Naomi’s game is also not ready to be sustained at the very top.  Naomi plays a very straight up and down game with not much margin for error, and when Naomi makes errors; her game unravels very quickly indeed, especially when she is feeling uncomfortable on the court. The only way to fix this is sheer hard work, work on her mental approach to the game and add more elements to her game. In my opinion this would include working on her percentages, assessing when to pull the trigger and go for winners off short balls, as opposed to any position at the back of the court, Naomi also needs to develop a transition a game, where she can create or take any advantage of short balls to finish points at the net.

It is impressive that Naomi has achieved so much already with what on the face of it looks like a still underdeveloped game. If Naomi can improve all aspects, we could be a looking at a real great player. 2020 may be too soon to become a much more rounded player although she has hired Wim Fissette as her new coach.  Naomi’s best chance of major success will again be on the hardcourts which has the even bounce all big hitters crave.

Bianca Andreescu

This has been one hell of a rise for Bianca in 2019, in many ways mirroring Naomi Osaka’s rise in 2018. 

Bianca started the year outside of the top 100 playing challengers, then finishing the year ranked number six in the world.  Bianca also became the first teenager to win a major tournament since Svetlana Kuznetsova won the US Open in 2004 and the first player born in this millennium to win a major title. Bianca gave notice that she will be a force to be reckoned with when she reached the final of Auckland despite having to play three qualifying rounds just to get into the main draw.  Bianca lost out to Julia Georges but then surprised everyone by winning Indian Wells in March, defeating Angelique Kerber in the final in three sets. Later in the summer Bianca would win the Canadian Open defeating Serena Williams who had to retire in the final, and then defeating Serena a month later in the US Open final; you would have to say relatively easily as well.  The interesting thing here is that despite her success Bianca played a relatively shortened season due to injuries so it will be nice to see how Bianca will perform in 2020 if she can stay injury free. 

It will also be interesting to see how Bianca will perform on surfaces away from hardcourts where she has had all of her successful results so far. Like so many players from North America, Bianca’s best results have come on hardcourts as that is the surface she grew up on; right now her game is very hardcourt centric. Therefore, for me it is difficult to gauge what kind of game Bianca has for clay and grass. As far as I can see, Bianca likes to hit the cross court and down the line patterns, however to win on clay and grass you need a little bit more tactical variation. Bianca is still very young so 2020 will be an interesting year for her. 

Karolina Pliskova

Karolina finished 2019 ranked number 2 in the world.  However, I don’t recall anything exceptional about Karolina’s 2019 season. 

In fact, I would venture to say it was underwhelming.  Karolina did make the semi-final of the Australian Open losing to Naomi Osaka and then the Miami final losing to Ashleigh Barty. Karolina won a huge tournament at the Italian Open in May, with a straightforward win over Johanna Konta, and then beat Angelique Kerber in the Eastbourne final.  However, despite these good results, Karolina appeared to be a non-factor for much of the year, often being unsure with who should be her coach, which perhaps was not helping the situation as different coaches during the season means different ideas for her to take in and try to implement on the court.

Karolina did have good results towards the end of the season, winning the Zhenzou Open in China and reaching the semi-finals of the WTA finals losing to Barty in three sets, Karolina appeared to play her best in China.  For the 2020 season, Karolina has hired Daniel Vallverdu so hopefully that will help to be the key to finally delivering a major title.  A few years ago I identified Karolina as a potential major winner but unfortunately I do not see much changes or improvement to her game to help make the transition to major champion.  Karolina has the best serve on the tour no question; however there is still an issue with her movement which is unfortunate as she is 1m 85 (6 ft. 1) thus her movement will be compromised. 

To cover the lack of movement Karolina has to think of some tactical plays; which could be attacking the net more or being more solid off the ground. I mentioned this before but when I saw her play in Eastbourne in 2017, I was struck by how low she consistently hit the ball over the net in the baseline exchanges. I think that is a big problem because that is unsustainable, there is simply not enough margin for error and that needs to be addressed, there needs to be higher net clearance which will help with her confidence, that would require an increase in the ratio of spin on the ball.

Karolina has a lot of talent but is not making the most of it, there is a fear Karolina will miss out so hopefully in 2020 she can get it together. Like most players today, her best chance of success will come on the hardcourts.  Her movement on grass at Wimbledon needs improvement to be a contender there.

Simona Halep

2019 proved to be an interesting year for Simona. Statistically it was not her most productive by any means, winning one tournament and losing two finals in Madrid and Qatar. However, the only tournament she won was the biggest to win! Wimbledon, and in memorable fashion, totally outplaying Serena Williams in just over an hour, making Serena look distinctly pedestrian in the process.

This allowed Simona to achieve a childhood dream of winning Wimbledon, the first Romanian player to win the tournament.  Simona has joined a very select group of players who have won the French Open and Wimbledon, which is not easy to do. 

Besides her Wimbledon triumph, Simona didn’t really pull up too many trees on the WTA tour or at the other major championships. In Australia Simona lost to Serena in the fourth round in three sets, at the French she went down at the quarterfinal stage as defending champion, losing to upcoming American Amanda Anisimova and at the US Open lost to American Taylor Townsend who came to net over 100 times in a three set match!!  Simona also made the semi-final of the Miami Open losing out to Karolina Plisokva.

Therefore, not a stellar year but Simona should go into 2020 believing she is a contender at all of the big tournaments.  The criticism with Simona has been that she was often not pro-active enough on the court. I would go along with this, Simona cites Justine Henin as her inspiration, however at the same height (1 m 68) Justine was one of the most proactive players on the WTA tour trying everything from chipping and charging to serve volleying and going for winners when it didn’t look on.  Simona still needs to play more proactively in my opinion if she wants to get back to number 1 in the world and win more major titles.  As of now, Simona’s best chances will come on the natural surfaces where craft comes into play; it will be difficult on hardcourts where she can get brushed aside by bigger hitters.

Simona has announced she will not be playing Fed Cup in 2020 to concentrate on the Olympics in Tokyo. Let’s see how that goes.

Other Players to Watch

Elina Svtolina

Elina had a reasonable 2019, finishing the year ranked six and reaching the semi-finals at Wimbledon and US Open, whilst almost defending her title at the WTA finals losing out to Ash Barty in the title match. However, Elina won no titles throughout the year and she will want to change that in 2020. Elina is a player who does everything well, but nothing exceptionally, similar to Tim Henman when he was on the ATP tour.  To win a major title you need more than doing everything well, Elina has to work on becoming either more aggressive, coming to net or taking many more risks and initiative. That will be mentally tough for a player who likes to be a “steady eddy”.

Belinda Bencic

Belinda has had a terrible amount of injuries in the last two to three years after bursting onto the scene as a teenager in 2016.  Belinda is mentored by Martina Hingis and it is clear to see, Belinda has a game almost identical to Hingis and is an intelligent player and good to watch. Belinda finished the year ranked seven after winning Dubai, Mallorca and the Kremlin cup in October, plus reaching the semi-finals of Indian Wells, US Open and WTA finals where she had to retire in the third set against Barty.  Like Svitolina, Belinda does everything well, however, if things fall into place she may well be a slightly bigger contender at the major tournaments going forward.

Serena Williams

Like Roger Federer, Serena Williams shows absolutely no signs of packing it in and retiring. However, the manner of defeats in the Wimbledon and US finals will give her pause for thought. At the same time, she won six matches each time to make the finals so she is still doing considerably better than many of her opponents. If Serena pulls off a major win, she would have won in the 1990s, 2000s, 2010s and potentially 2020s so this will be interesting to watch.

Johanna Konta

Perhaps my British bias here for including Konta.  There was a lot of promise in 2019 for Johanna but it didn’t happen. In fact, in the Italian Open final. French Open semi-final and Wimbledon quarterfinal she displayed a bizarre lack of composure in the big moments, often rushing up to mid court short balls (which all good tennis players crave) and then literally hit the shots into the back fence, which made for very painful viewing, especially as she did it over and over again.  Johanna did not win a tournament in 2019 but if she can overcome her nerves, she will give herself more opportunities to win a big title in 2020.

Sloane Stephens

As before, Sloane’s form and rankings has continued to “yo-yo” from US Open winner in 2017 and French Open finalist in 2018 to ranked outside of the top 20 once again. Sloane is too dangerous a competitor not to make another comeback into the top ten at some point.

Madison Keys

A player who has a similar game to Naomi Osaka, Madison’s game has not developed since she burst onto the scene in 2014.  This happens so often to players who have big shots but for whatever reason seem unable to "rein it in" and play with more spin and percentages and strategy. As of this moment in time, Madison is a definite underachiever and has changed coaches fairly regularly; let’s see if she can get it together in 2020.