The Murray Kerber Factor

2017 is proving to be a challenging period for the players who hold the world number one position in tennis. Angelique Kerber regained the top ranking from Serena Williams during the clay court season whilst Andy Murray has been struggling to make an impression, with many early exits from tournaments since the season began at the end of December.

What is really interesting is how similar the situation is for both players and I think this is worth exploring further.  The best way to do that would be to chart Angelique’s and Andy’s accent to number 1.

For Angelique, 2016 was a great year; the best year of her career and may turn out to be the best ever year she will experience. Not many players in history have won two grand slam titles in one season and played in three finals. Not only that, Angelique also got to the finals of the Olympics, Cincinnati and the year end championships in Singapore.  The only slight downside would be that she could have won more finals and being more dominant.  To put things into perspective, Angelique was ranked exactly 100 in 2011 and became a top ten player within twelve months and remained more or less a top ten player until her ascent to number 1 in September 2016. It will be safe to say that Angelique dreamed of winning a major title but perhaps never thought of becoming number 1 until last year when the opportunity arose; and we should reflect on some of the recent players who have failed to win a major title including Agnieszka Radwanska, Caroline Wozniacki, Jelena Jankovic and Elena Dementieva. 

So we really have to applaud what Angelique pulled off in 2016, the major finals had brilliant tennis and a lot of drama. Even though the Wimbledon final was only two sets, the tennis by both Angelique and Serena was very high quality.  2016 should be enough to guarantee Angelique a spot in the Hall of Fame in Newport when she is retired from tennis. 

Andy’s ascent to number 1 in the world was slightly different but still impressive. Andy’s problem throughout his career is that he beats the rest but lost consistently to Djokovic, Nadal and Federer is semifinals and finals.  Last year he played great in getting to the final of the French Open, in the semifinal he took out Stan Wawrinka impressively, Stan was defending champion; and in the final he went a set up against Djokovic and looked very dominant whilst Djokovic was understandably nervous. However, early into the 2nd set, Andy backed off which allowed Djokovic to hit deeper and harder shots consistently eventually wearing Andy down and he was unable to respond.

That defeat didn’t deter Andy too much as he went on to win Queens for a fifth time and Wimbledon for a second time defeating Milos Raonic in the final in straight sets. Andy then went on to defend his Olympic title in a marathon final against Juan Martin Del Potro which lasted almost four hours even though it was only four sets! Andy didn’t have a great US Open losing to Nishikori in the quarterfinal but had a very strong end of year, winning indoor tournaments in Beijing, Shanghai, Paris culminating with defeating his nemesis Djokovic in the World Tour Finals and claiming the number 1 spot for the first time in his career.  Again, Andy might have had a dream to be number 1 but it was never really a reality until he found a way to be consistent throughout the season on many surfaces at different times of the year; Andy did that last year for the first time in his career.

What we have is a situation where both Angelique and Andy claimed the number 1 spot for the first time in their careers:

•  Angelique got to number 1 at the age of 28 years and 9 months. Andy got to number at the age of 29 years and five months
•  Both players are the oldest in the open era to be ranked at number 1 for the very first time
•  Both players have built their game on counterpunching first.

So far in 2017, both players have had similar results; both knocked out at the fourth round stage of the Australian Open.  They also struggled during the American hardcourt season in Indian Wells and Miami; and have continued to struggle so far during the clay court season with early exits in Madrid and Rome.  Angelique did get to the final of the Monterrey Open in March but lost in three sets to Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.  Andy won the Dubai championships defeating Fernando Verdasco in the final. However, the dynamics of their struggles this year is interesting. My feeling is that their style of play, reaching number 1 status at such a late age relatively is contributing to their difficulties of handling the number 1 position in terms of results and dominant performances.

Angelique

I think Angelique has one of the best games on the WTA tour. Angelique is not the tallest at 1m 73 (5ft 8 inches) but is one of quickest athletes who could have excelled in any sport which requires the use of fast twitch fibres. The one area that has let Angelique down throughout her career is her serve, which is the weakest part of her game. The fact that she has won two grand slam titles and reached world number 1 is a testament to how good her overall game is. Angelique’s serve barely gets above 100 mph (160km) and her 2nd serve has been very attackable over the years. Angelique has worked hard to improve her serve which helped her to win the Australian Open in 2016; in her matches against Victoria Azarenka and Serena Williams she hit aces at crucial moments.  Like Rafael Nadal, Angelique is right handed, so serving does not come naturally to her, her serve is similar to Nadal in that she doesn’t extend up, hammer down or snap the wrist, it is more of a guide and a push into the court, hence the lack of power and looseness in the motion.  I have often said that Angelique should use her athleticism around the net more; she has a great smash and volleys well because of her quick reactions. However, like Simona Halep, Angelique is reluctant to go to net to finish points; that could be the difference in her winning more tournaments on a regular basis, along with improving her serve further; which would increase her confidence at a higher level for longer periods.

Andy

Andy also has one of the very best games on the ATP tour, Andy has worked incredibly hard to get to the level he is at now. Even though Andy is tall at 1m 9 (6ft 3inches) he never developed any natural weapons as a teenager and seemed to thrive on playing a counter puncher’s game where he doesn’t make many mistakes. It is slightly surprising that he took this type of game onto the tour but it has served him well.  However, you have to wonder how more successful Andy could have been particularly in grand slam finals when the minimum requirement is to take your game to your opponent and stay aggressive. Andy’s big problem has been his serve and his 2nd serve in particular, which has been way too attackable over the years, dropping short in the service box around 80mph, that simply won’t work in major finals. In 2008 Andy was quoted as saying that if he served at 75% first serves, he would win almost all of his matches. That was widely reported but I always thought it was a strange philosophy to have and a misguided one at best. That’s because Andy is often serving first serves between 115 to 140mph; at that pace it is almost impossible to serve at 75%, top players tend to serve anywhere from 60 to 66% first serves. Also, to me it immediately sent warning signs that Andy does not want to hit too many 2nd serves but the media never picked up on this. Andy knew deep down that his 2nd serve was not up to scratch and by hitting a very high proportion of 1st serves he would prevent guys attacking his weak second delivery.  One way to negate that is to hit a lot of three quarter pace kick serves, but unlike an Andre Agassi, Murray may not have the strength to do that consistently.

What we have is a situation where two players had a great 2016 and rose to the number 1 ranking which allowed them to fulfil a dream. It is also uncanny how both players were well aware that to make the leap from contender to champion they had to add a more aggressive element to their counterpunching style of play.  Angelique was able to make use of her down the line shots and sometimes attack short balls; Andy used Ivan Lendl’s experience and guidance to add something extra to his game. Ivan faced a lot of quality attacking players in his career and needed to come up with ways to defeat them on a regular basis.  I think the problems both players are having in 2017 stem from their style of play, it is very difficult to stay ahead of the pack with a counterpunching game, and mentally it is too taxing. It is probably more mental than physical because counterpunchers by nature are willing to be out on the court for long periods of time to win matches. However, the burden of being the best player in the world means that players are out to take your scalp and you are obliged to show the world you are the person to beat with dominant performances more often than not.

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal who can also be classed as counterpunchers learned that to stay at number 1 for any length of time you need to finish matches quickly and save energy for the latter stages. Under Boris Becker, Novak Djokovic perfected the art of quick points, which is something he is not known for as the media never really understood what Becker brought to Djokovic to make the difference.

The challenge is set for both Angelique and Andy to learn from the first half of the year and take that into the grass court and hard court season, surfaces both players do well on, the French Open may have come to soon to turn around their fortunes. The opportunity is there to stay at number 1 throughout the summer if Angelique improves her French Open performance and Andy does not have a disastrous Wimbledon. Let’s see how they go.

Johanna Konta: An In Depth Look At Her Game

Johanna Konta wins Miami Open

The clay court season is underway and we are about to embark on another great period of spring and summer tennis. This is a good opportunity to take a look at the one of the hottest properties on the tour right now in Johanna Konta. 

Johanna has made a dramatic rise up the rankings in the last two seasons to a career high position of seven and recently won the prestigious Miami Open title, one of the biggest titles outside of grand slam level.  Let’s take a look at how Johanna has got to this position, assess her strengths and weaknesses and try to predict how far she can get in her career.

Serve

Johanna possesses one of the better serves on the WTA tour.  Johanna is a tall player at 1m 80 (5 ft. 11) and thus able to extend up and serve well into the corners.  Another asset for Johanna is her ability to consistently produce first serves of over 100mph which keeps her opponents honest more often than not.  As regards to her serving stance and motion, it is one of the more bizarre motions we have witnessed on the tour; which starts off by deliberately twirling her handle on the racquet four times, whilst bouncing the ball four times as high as possible followed with a fifth lower bounce!  Quirky is the phrase that springs to mind but it definitely works for her which is the most important thing.  

Up to this point of the season Johanna has served over 100 aces at an average of just over five aces per match; and due to the pace she generates creates a lot of opportunities for unreturnables from her opponents.  Johanna’s favourite serve on the deuce court is the wide serve to the forehand (for a right hander); a risky play but opens up the court considerably if implemented correctly.  Johanna also serves very well down the middle which is the lowest part of the net, this allows her to win the majority of her service games which stands at 82% at this stage of the season, which is extremely good; however due to the nature of clay court tennis, expect this average to drop slightly over the next few weeks.  On the ad court, Johanna also likes to serve down the middle but in my view she finds this technically more difficult to swing the ball with slice but it is developing nicely now.  As for the 2nd serve, Johanna has a reliable delivery which she uses on the ad court as a kicker more often than not but also can serve into the body as well. So far, Johanna has won 51% of her 2nd serve points which again is quite good; you always need to win at least 50% of 2nd serve deliveries to be really competitive in tennis. The key is depth, serving deep into the box so it doesn’t sit up waiting to be put away.  In summary, Johanna is adept at serving into all four corners of the box and into the body which makes up the six targets of serving to an opponent.

Return of Serve

Johanna likes to play an aggressive game when it comes to return of serve.  So far this mentality has certainly contributed to her success on hardcourts culminating with her biggest title to date in Miami at the beginning of April.  Johanna likes to keep the points fairly short by taking the ball as early as possible and hitting deep returns on both forehand and backhand side, putting her opponent on the defensive.  Hitting deep returns is an excellent tactic in my view as you always leave yourself some margin for error.  If a player goes for winners too often they are prone to making many more errors which leads to frustration.  To validate this, Johanna has won 44% of her return games so far and converted 46% of break point opportunities, two very good statistics.

This is classic hard court tactics which works if implemented well.  Now that we are in the spring / early summer period, it will be interesting to see how Johanna adapts her tactics to clay and grass which both require different methods, or at least an adaptation of a mainstay plan. On clay, Johanna will have to decide whether she will keep her attacking stance or drop off.  Theoretically she should be able to do well as WTA players in general do not hit the kick serve as much, so the ball would not get above her shoulder too often to cause her problems. However, that could be a problem as the rally develops with the cannier players using topspin as a weapon to get the ball to move more off the court. Therefore, Johanna’s return of serve will have to better than on hardcourt to be successful as her movement sideways and coming forward will be more severely tested.

In 2016 Johanna had a mixed grass court period, she reached the semifinal of Eastbourne and played a very close three setter against Dominika Cibulkova but at Wimbledon lost in the 2nd round to Eugenie Bouchard.  However, taking the ball early on return of serve on grass should be a useful tactic.

Forehand

This is one of the vital improvements Johanna has made in her game, to have a more reliable forehand; this has helped her to shoot up the rankings over the last twenty four months. 

Johanna uses a semi western grip on the forehand and for a long period this has been a shaky shot, but in recent times Johanna has worked hard to make it more stable so it doesn’t break down under pressure, either from her opponents who attack it consistently or from nerves in a tight situation score wise. One way to deal with that is to hit through the nerves, which may explain Johann’s willingness to go for her shots as often as possible.  I would like to see Johanna hit the forehand down the line more often to open up the court and attack the net; I would also like to see her hit the inside out forehand more and make more use of angles, although that might require her to slightly adjust her court position. With Johanna’s athleticism that shouldn’t be a problem if she wants to make her forehand a bigger weapon. 

Backhand

Like most modern players this is Johanna’s more reliable shot and sets up a lot of her points and ultimately wins on the WTA tour. As mentioned earlier, Johanna is very good at using the backhand to hit penetrating returns which allow her to open up the court.  In the rallies Johanna is good at using the backhand as a shot which can be used to attack the defences of her opponent and to take advantage of short balls to attack the net. Johanna is also adept at taking one hand off to use the slice to stay in the rally when stretched. I do get the feeling Johanna is a little too impatient at times and wants to go for the killer shot too quickly, a certain lack of compromise. However, there are times when compromising is necessary, especially if you want to be a top five or number one player; simply because your opponents are capable of doing to you what you are trying to do to them.  One way to guard against that is by being a bit more strategic, probing a few more shots then look for the shorter ball to attack. 

  

Volleys & Overheads

Johanna plays an aggressive game and likes to come forward to finish points when the opportunity presents itself.  I would say Johanna’s volleys are adequate and technically slightly not quite up to scratch.  Like most modern players it could be the racquet which is an issue or Johanna did not learn to apply slice to volleys to keep them low.  I mention the racquet because like Garbine Muguruza, Johanna uses a large Babolat frame. Garbine for instance, wants to come forward as often as possible and frankly has terrible technique on the volley. It could be that the large Babolat frame does not lend itself to good volleying technique yet so many top players use that frame.  Having said that, Karolina Pliskova also uses a Babolat Pure Drive and has good volleying skills. 

In many ways, the volley is the like the serve, the more you work at it and practice it, the better technically skilled you become with it which can make the difference in a tight match. No better example than Serena Williams’ serve, the best serve in the game which has helped her to win countless matches when she was getting outplayed from the baseline. I get the feeling many players including Johanna have not worked on their volleying skills enough in their formative years which becomes an issue as pro players at the top level.

I would like to see Johanna put slice on her volleys more often to keep the ball low, especially on hard courts, and rely less on the swing volley. However, that is unlikely as most modern players rely on the swing volley even though it often doesn’t work.

At 1m 80, Johanna has the attributes and athleticism to have a good overhead; the key will be tracking back and getting her feet into position, everything else takes care of itself.

Movement

This is one of the key areas which will determine how far a player can progress in their career. The better the movement, the more likely they are to be successful. Success is relative to the player and can mean different things to different people.  In Johanna’s case, she has stated she wants to get to number 1 in the world at some point in her career, preferably sooner than later. With that in mind she is on the right track as her movement has improved significantly over the last 18 months.  This is manifested in her hardcourt results which I would say is probably her favourite surface as she has faith in the bounce; very similar to Kim Clijsters and Andre Agassi who won the majority of their tournaments on hardcourts.

Johanna’s footwork is extremely busy at all times which suggest to me she is a very hard worker.  However, there are still some areas where she can improve her movement.  Even though Johanna’s footwork is busy, I feel she can use her athleticism more to move around the ball to create more on the forehand side, especially down the line and inside out; this would take her game to a higher level.  The ball can be a bit too close and a lot rallies take place down the middle of the court. This is a trait of many modern WTA players who want to stand their ground close to the baseline; the ball is coming fast and they don’t have time to move out of the way, so “muscle” the ball often.  It works up to the point but the best players have the best movement and create angles more often, they do that by playing the court a bit more diagonally, allowing them to hit the forehand down the line or cross court (inside out). To use that play you have to be able to attack the net or be able to cover your forehand if your opponent hits down the line to your forehand

I noticed this last year during Wimbledon when Johanna lost to Eugenie Bouchard in the 2nd round.  Johanna often seemed rushed and not set to hit her shots freely, the ball was coming onto her too quickly. That wasn’t because Eugenie was hitting the ball at the speed of light but Johanna wasn’t moving well enough to make room for her shots. 

I think to be successful on grass Johanna will have to move better so she has more time to set up her shots and not feel rushed.  On clay, so far Johanna’s slightly over aggressive game is not a good fit. Johanna will have to be more patient, play with a bit more strategy and create more openings to attack short balls or use the drop shot. At this stage of her career, Johanna’s game is very hard court centric.

Conclusion

Johanna Konta has the mentality to be the best player in the world, I have no doubt about that.  Up to this point, Johanna has done very well to become a top ten player with the opportunity to go further up the rankings over the next twelve months. To achieve that aim, Johanna needs to acquire more all-round skills but she is a good learner so that shouldn’t be a problem.  The next three majors for 2017 will give us an indication of Johanna’s progress to become the best in the business.

Previewing The 2017 WTA Season

With the 2017 WTA season fast approaching, let’s take a look at some of the players who are likely to make the biggest impression and win the big prizes.

Angelique Kerber

The 2016 WTA season proved to be one of the most exciting for a number of years; and that was pretty much down to one player, Angelique Kerber, who took the game by storm by appearing in three out of four major finals and winning two of them.

And yet, Angelique wasn’t a player who dominated the year by winning week in week out on the WTA tour but saved herself for the biggest tournaments; which is almost the domain of the experienced veteran, a player who peaks for the biggest tournaments in the world. This enabled Angelique to gain the number 1 ranking and become the oldest ever debutant number 1 at the age of 28.  Interestingly on the mens side, Andy Murray became the oldest debutant number 1 since John Newcombe in the early 1970s, and it is fair to say both Murray and Angelique play a similar game.

Angelique was able to turn her career around by doing a number of things.  The first was to improve her mental game, Angelique always possessed natural ability and a strong work ethic but often got depressed during the course of a match which would affect her performance, especially against taller stronger players who hit the ball big.  This year Angelique was able to stay in matches at all times which allowed her to take opportunities which came her way. A perfect example of this was the 4th round of the Australian Open where she put in one of the best performances of her career to defeat Victoria Azarenka in straight sets.  Especially impressive was coming from 2-5 down in the second set to win it 7-5, hitting aces on important points, something she never really did before.

Another improvement was fitness, something Angelique has talked about a lot this year in interviews. Angelique’s fitness is perhaps the reason why her mental game improved as both go hand in hand.  The third improvement was her willingness to take the initiative more often, something she was always capable of but like Murray often reluctant to do it. Angelique has great athleticism around the net, one of the best smashes on the womens tour and able to hit winners down the line off both wings, which she could also use to attack the net. In fact, I would like to see Angelique come forward much more often which will make her even more difficult to beat in big matches.

2017 will prove difficult to replicate what Angelique has done in 2016.  However, if she can win at least one grand slam title, she will have validated her status as the best woman player in the world.  Other aims will be to win more titles on the WTA tour and to help Germany to win the Federation cup.

Serena Williams

Serena Williams lost her number 1 status to Angelique Kerber in September after an almost three year period at the top. In years past, we predicted Serena to make a comeback at some point the following season; Serena loves to make a statement that she is still the best.

On this occasion there is one caveat, Serena is now 35 years old and you would think the older Serena gets the more difficult it becomes to keep making comebacks to the top of the rankings. It is not impossible; Martina Navratilova was playing in latter rounds of grand slams well into her 30s and played in a Wimbledon final in 1994 at the age of 38 (losing to Conchita Martina Martinez).  One thing is for sure, despite all of the injuries in the last two seasons, we must not write Serena off.

In 2017 the key for Serena will be to stay fit and play enough lead up tournaments to be competitive in the major tournaments.  History will suggest this will not be too much of an issue as Serena has a convincing winning record on virtually every opponent she faces.  Serena still has the best serve in the game and even if her ground game is not quite as formidable due to slightly lesser movement, she is still very difficult to beat, especially on grass. Perhaps at this stage Serena’s motivation is not to win as many majors as possible but to win one to get past Steffi Graf’s total of 22 which she currently shares.

Garbine Muguruza

2016 was an interesting year for Garbine Muguruza

I say interesting because she played an incredible French Open tournament and was brilliant in the final against Serena Williams, in fact Serena looked like she was never going to win the match, she had virtually no opportunities. That was Garbine’s first grand slam victory, and yet it seems to me Garbine was virtually a non-factor for the rest of the tennis season, I don’t recall any significant results in either the hardcourt season or Olympic Games.

I observed last year that Garbine’s game very much reminds me of a female Marat Safin. When she is on her game she is very powerful and looks impossible to beat but suffers from incredible inconsistency at this stage of her career, much like Marat did.  At 1m 82 (5 ft 11) her movement is not the best which is an issue. Also, in my opinion Garbine takes too long between points and ambles around the court between serves, which gives an impression constant low energy. It is her style so will probably not change but is something I am sure noted by her opponents.  I am still impressed with her willingness to get to net to finish points but at the same time distinctly unimpressed with her volleying technique; Garbine insists on hitting swing volleys and constantly gets the grip all wrong, never changing the grip in time to hit the swing volley properly and perhaps she should consider hitting conventional volleys instead.

Difficult to say what 2017 will bring. We have to remember Garbine is still one of the young players on the tour and has achieved a lot already; she is still three years away from hitting top form. Her best chances to win majors and challenge for number 1 will come in the middle of the year on clay and grass. On hardcourts she will have to significantly improve her movement to be a threat.

Simona Halep

Every year I do a preview or round up I am almost always obliged to write something about Simona Halep!

That indicates Simona is always there without quite getting to the next level, and has to be included in the conversation.  However, I have seen enough of Simona to say despite the odd win at a Masters tournament such as Canada, Simona still has the same problems and issues she had twelve months ago, I don’t see any improvement.

The problems being that Simona spends far too much time running from side to side and is only prepared to come forward to shake hands at the end of the match, or when she is forced forward by short angles from her opponent.  Even in an era where the volley has become less important, it is still virtually impossible to win major titles without having the ability to come forward to finish points. Finishing points at net saves energy and shows your opponent you mean business.  At 1m 68 Simona is shorter but very athletic; players like Justine Henin, Arantxa Sanchez Vicario, Barbora Strycova and others have shown that shorter players can be successful at net with good athleticism and a good overhead. 

I also still question what Darren Cahill’s role is, is to calm her nerves?  By this stage they should have Simona playing better than she did in 2014 and 2015.  In 2017 I want to see Simona play a more expansive game to get to the next level.  Kerber has laid the blueprint for how “counterpunchers” can take their game forward by adding important attacking facets to her game to go with the consistency, hopefully Simona will take note.

Karolina Pliskova

Karolina had an excellent year in 2016, really shooting up the rankings and playing a significant role again in helping the Czech Republic to defend their Federation cup title against France, Karolina is now the clear Czech number 1.  Last year I identified Karolina to be one to watch in 2016 and she didn’t disappoint.  Up to that point it was a surprise she didn’t do better at grand slam level but really came through this year to win Cincinnati and coming really close to winning the US Open after convincingly defeating Serena in the semifinal and a break up in the 3rd set against Kerber in the final.

I think Karolina made significant changes in her game in 2016 to become a consistent top 10 player. Karolina has a much better mental approach, she is now prepared to play aggressive but maintain a much better level of control, something she wasn’t doing in 2014 or 2015 where she would make very poor errors for no real reason and not when really under pressure from her opponent.  Karolina has the second best serve in the game after Serena Williams and I think will take over as the best server in the world once Serena retires.  Karolina is 1m 86 (6ft 2) so has the angles covered and hits the serve down the middle on the ad court beautifully, she also has an easy service motion which she can produce over and over without too much tension.  The one area Karolina still needs to work on is her movement. Like any player 6ft or taller, she finds it more difficult to change direction quickly so is vulnerable to being run side to side by a smart opponent. Hence why Karolina, Petra Kvitova, Lindsay Davenport all prefer to play first strike tennis, the only exception to the rule being Venus Williams who had exceptional defence for a tall player.

Another area which is extremely impressive is Karolina’s volleys and touch at net.  The Czech Republic continue to produce players who volley extremely well because they grow up playing indoor tennis on quicker surfaces, they produce all court players. In contrast to Muguruza who wants to come forward, but growing up on slower surfaces means she has never learned to change grips and volley properly.

I see no reason why Karolina cannot continue to improve and end 2017 as a top five player with a major title accomplished as well.

Madison Keys

Previewing a new season is always an opportunity to see how the younger players are measuring up. And, of course the new generation are always looking over their shoulder to see how the others are doing.  Muguruza has got the jump on Madison and Pliskova by winning a major title, but they are all established top 10 players now.

Madison is yet to play in a final like the other two but has already appeared in the semifinal of the Australian Open in 2015 so has potential.  I mentioned earlier that Pliskova can take over from Serena as having the best serve in the womens game but so can Madison, who has a mean kick serve and can serve upwards of 120 miles per hour in the corners.  Madison has also changed coaches twice; the memo was that Lindsay Davenport didn’t want to travel as much so she hired German Thomas Hogstetd but has since dispensed with his services at the end of the season. Madison had some good results, for instance getting to the final of the Italian Open and Canadian Open (yes I prefer the old fashioned terms) and reaching the end of year championships in Singapore; Madison also won the grass tournament in Birmingham.  I get the feeling when watching Madison that she is at the same stage of development Karolina was in 2015. Madison has yet to cut out those unexplainable unforced errors and play consistent, which is preventing her getting to the next level. Madison is tall and strong and with so many of the modern players, struggles with her movement but is trying to improve that area of her game. Having said that, Madison is listed at 1m 78 (5 ft 10) therefore it is slightly surprising her movement is such an issue as she is not that tall by modern standards.

Thomas Hogstetd tried to get Madison to slow her serve down and hit more spin but I don’t think it was wise or worked so I am not surprised he is no longer her coach.  Madison is capable of winning a major title in 2017, as long as she can cut down on the errors and be willing to come to net more to finish off points, play with a better strategy, she has all of the shots and power to be number 1.

Petra Kvitova

Petra finished the year ranked number 11 and won the Elite trophy in Zhuhai, the next tournament in prestige after the WTA championships. Petra also split with her long term coach David Kotiza back in the spring as part of the changes she wanted to make to get her game back on track after the long illness she suffered in 2015. But the significance of all this is the horrendous attack she suffered in her own home just last week which left her needing surgery on her left hand.  Petra says she is lucky to be alive and we are all grateful for this, and perhaps because she is a strong athlete was able to withstand the attack.  Hopefully Petra will be back by the summer. We can’t predict how Petra will do but we know with her talent she will win big tournaments again in future as soon as she can mentally banish the fears she will no doubt be feeling. We wish her well.

Others to watch:

Dominika Cibulkova

Dominika had her best year to date, winning Eastbourne, reaching the quarterfinal of Wimbledon and getting married as well during a great summer for her.  Dominica made her debut at the WTA championships in Singapore and went on to win it, playing clutch tennis against Halep to qualify for the semifinal, coming from a set down to beat Svetlana Kuznetsova in the semifinal and a great victory in the final against number 1 Angelique Kerber, Dominika claimed the title with brilliant controlled aggressive play.  Jana Novotna and Amelie Mauresmo used a win at the Masters to propel them to grand slam success the following season, can Dominica do the same?

Johanna Konta

Johanna is Britain’s first top ten player since Jo Durie achieved that feat back in the 1980s. This is important because Johanna entered the top 10 late in the season and won her first title in California defeating Venus Williams in the final.  Johanna carried on her good form from 2015 by reaching the Australian Open semifinal at that start of 2016 losing to eventual champion Kerber.  Johanna also made the semifinal of Eastbourne and the Elite Trophy losing a tough three setter to Elina Svitolina.

Since the end of last season Johanna has parted company with her coach Esteban Carill and is currently trialling with Wim Fisette who coached Kim Clijsters. Johanna also lost her mentor Juan Coto who sadly died in December.  As far as 2017 is concerned, Johanna has a good opportunity to improve her game further. Even though Johanna is 25 years old and shot up the rankings dramatically, I feel her game is still a bit raw and needs refining, similar to the position Kerber found herself in 2012.  I think Johanna needs to improve her forehand decision making and footwork; if she can improve those aspects to go along with her tremendous serve, she is an outside bet to win a major title.

Maria Sharapova

This will be interesting, the return of Maria Sharapova in the spring of 2017.  Clearly there is no point in predicting what will happen on her return from the much publicised drugs ban but it certainly spices up the tour for all of the players whether it is the number 1 player or journeywomen on the tour.

Analysing Proposed Davis Cup changes by ITF

Tennis, like many sports has been often been accused of being stuck in a malaise of tradition.

However, tennis has been involved in quite a bit of innovation over the decades.  For instance the tiebreak, which was introduced in 1970; before the tiebreak, first sets in matches could often end up 10:8!  Tennis along with cricket were also the first sports to introduce Hawk-Eye.  Cricket initially brought in Hawk-Eye (developed by Paul Hawkins) for the benefit of television viewers, then later as part of the review system for the Third Umpire to check LBW (leg before wicket) decisions on the TV monitor in the back studio.  Tennis soon followed suit introducing Hawk-Eye in 2006 as part of their review system, where a player could challenge a call made by the umpire or line judge.  The ATP tour has introduced the no ad scoring system in doubles matches, however, I consider that more of a convenience for television rather than an innovation. 

One competition that has been crying out for change or innovation is the Davis Cup, the mens team event.  There is no doubt that the Davis Cup is a great competition, just look at the fervour of the crowds at any Davis cup match anywhere in the world at any level; and the players clearly love playing the competition.  However, for as long as I have been watching tennis, the Davis cup has been held back by its format but now the International Tennis Federation (ITF) has finally come to the conclusion that the Davis cup format needs looking at with some urgency.  There are many reasons why this should be the case, the future is looking brighter already if some of these ideas can be implemented.

If we look at the open era, I believe the Davis Cup has continually shot itself in the foot. 

The first problem is each round of the Davis cup is held the week after the four major tournaments.  Invariably a player who wins a major tournament misses the Davis cup.  This has become even more stark in the last 25 years where major tournaments have become bigger, with more prestige, ranking points and prize money than ever before; due to the fact the Australian Open and Wimbledon are no longer routinely skipped by top players who didn’t want to play or grass or travel to Australasia around the Christmas period.  Whoever wins a major tournament today is sure to be drained physically and mentally and can hardly be expected to play a Davis cup tie just a few days later.  This weakens the competition immediately and thus weakens the prestige as well. 

The next problem is the competition is too long, with four rounds of play from February culminating with the final in either late November or early December.  Considering the tennis season recommences on 28th or 29th December every year in Doha, it seems strange to drag a competition on for such a long period of time.  Participants in the final almost get no time to rest before training begins for the start of the new season. 

These two factors have been key reasons as to why whoever wins the Davis cup more or less hinges on which players make themselves available for the entire year.  For instance, in 1995 Andre Agassi and Pete Sampras were the top two players in the world, both said they would only play if the other was playing; the Americans went on to win the Davis Cup that year beating Russia in the final. The implication being neither player wanted to give the other an edge by being fresher throughout the year for the big tournaments. In recent years this has become even more noticeable; it really depends on whoever makes themselves available as to who will actually win the competition.  In 2014 both Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka made the commitment to play Davis cup for Switzerland and they duly won the competition for the first time. The very next year in 2015 neither player was available for the first round tie which they promptly lost and were left fighting to avoid relegation. In 2015 Andy Murray was the only top five player who made himself available for the entire year and Britain went on to win the competition for the first time since the 1930s.

What is needed is a competition where all of the top players are available to play on a yearly basis, which in turn gives more credibility to the competition; the argument that players should be proud to play for their country regardless of factors and circumstances doesn’t quite work in tennis which is an individual sport first and foremost.  The previous President of sixteen years, Italian Francesco Ricci Bitti, was always intransigent in his views towards the Davis cup, due to being concerned that the ATP was attempting to gain more control over the tennis calendar.  However, new President American Dave Hegarty, has fully accepted that some changes should be put in place to make the Davis Cup a more viable and much more watched event, especially by neutral fans when it comes to the latter stages of the competition.

According to the ITF’s website, the proposed changes include: (direct quote from the website).

·      The launch of an open bid process to assess fixed host cities for the Davis Cup and Fed Cup by BNP Paribas Finals – a model used by events including the UEFA Champions League Final, Superbowl and European Rugby Champions Cup; 

·        Further steps towards the introduction of a 16-team World Group for Fed Cup by BNP Paribas via the introduction of a Final Four event;

·       full industry consultation on scheduling alternatives for the 2020 season;

·       A review of current match formats used in Davis Cup by BNP Paribas, particularly the current best-of- five-sets approach and scheduling requirements during the week;

·       An extensive feasibility study, by the newly created Davis & Fed Cup Taskforce, of format changes below World Group to better support and encourage involvement in both Davis and Fed Cup - particularly by developing tennis nations, and to further increase worldwide interest and viewership;

·       A full assessment of current staging options for host venues and cities;

·       A review of Junior Davis Cup and Fed Cup including the potential benefits of introducing new age group events

There is no doubt some of these proposed changes might prove controversial to some and a little ambitious, after all tennis is not football where the finals of major competitions have always been held in neutral venues so there is a tradition there.  However, I think some of these changes are well worth considering and indeed implementing over the next few years.

The first key change will be scheduling. Scheduling changes will be very difficult to implement so it will be interesting to see what the ITF come up with.  This is one area where the ITF, ATP and WTA need to work more closely together with absolute urgency.  At present in my opinion the ATP tour is too long, whilst the WTA tour is just about right.  Over recent seasons, the WTA has truncated the season considerably, with the end of year championships and Fed cup finals all completed by the end of October which gives the players one month of rest and an extra month to prepare before the new season begins at the end of December. 

However, the ATP World tour finals is not completed until mid November and the Davis cup final takes place after that, which means the players who play to the end do not get enough time to rest and prepare for the new season; before it was even worse, with the season often finishing in early December until a few years ago.  The problem revolves around the ties taking place a week after major tournaments; the ITF have to find a way to play these ties perhaps two weeks after major tournaments.  However, at the same time there is and has always been too many tournaments sanctioned by the ATP, which is more like a disparate arrangement than a coherent plan.  The question would be, how much would the ATP be willing to compromise their calendar for the Davis Cup?  This in my opinion is one of the keys as to why Francesco Ricci Bitti was unwilling to consider any changes to the Davis cup during his time in office.

The other key suggestion is no doubt the idea of switching matches from best of five to best of three sets.  This will be an issue for players and fans alike, some liking the suggestion and others not.  I definitely think it is something worth considering; some matches are taking too long to complete which does not help television.  Also, the choice of surfaces are also a factor, even indoor courts are now medium slow and there is no willingness by anyone to speed up surfaces to quicken points; the next best thing is indeed to reduce the length of matches.  This may well persuade top players to commit to playing Davis Cup every year as opposed to every two or three years at a time which currently happens. However, if the ITF and the ATP can find a solution to move ties further away from major tournaments there may be no need to contemplate best of three sets. 

The most intriguing proposal is the idea of hosting finals in neutral venues with cities bidding for the final as happens every year in the Champions League.  The questions I would ask are:

a) What would be the criteria, would it have to be indoors every year?  If an Australian city wanted to host the final they could do so in outdoor conditions during that time of year.

b) Would there be a consensus that all finals will be held on a particular surface?  Every year the host finalist is allowed to the choose the surface they wish to play on; we often see finals played on indoor clay to put the opponent off, will the national federations be willing to agree that from now on all finals are to be played on indoor hardcourt?  Would it be slow medium, fast medium, fast hardcourt?  Will the tennis balls be heavy duty or lighter?  These are all factors the ITF will have to take into account if they are serious about having neutral cities host the final; tennis is not as clear cut as football.

c) Where will semifinals be played?

It is good to see the ITF are ready to look at the format of the Davis Cup to see how it can be improved and preserved for future generations. Let’s see what concrete measures come out of these proposals over the next two years.  In the ITF’s quest to improve the Davis cup, I hope they do not tamper with the dates of the Federation cup which are working well and not interfering with major tournaments.  If the ITF wish to play the Fed cup final in a neutral venue that is fine.

Andy Murray v Pete Sampras?

Great Britain celebrated Andy Murray winning Wimbledon for the second time in his career.  A significant victory for Murray, it now puts him in a slightly elevated status in terms of open era tennis greats.  There are a few great players who won two majors in their career, but not many have won three and stay there.  As of now, Andy has the opportunity to win more majors before his career ends.

However, Andy’s victory brought out the inevitable comparison of eras from British journalists who were getting (over) excited about Andy’s success.  I read an interesting article by Sean Ingle of the Guardian newspaper.  In the article Sean gave us a variety of statistics which was designed to come to the conclusion that in any other era Murray would have been a multi grand slam champion, most likely at Wimbledon.  So far Murray has played in eleven major finals, winning three of them.  Eleven finals puts Murray in the top echelons for appearances in major finals, which is extremely impressive.  Three wins is not a good return but this is mitigated in Sean’s mind by the fact that Murray is playing in the greatest era of Djokovic, Federer and Nadal.  Sean Ingle also canvassed the opinion of Swedish Davis Cup captain Thomas Enqvist who played in the 1990s and early 2000s.  Thomas thought that during his time nobody could beat Sampras on grass but due to changes in racquets, strings, the ball and the composition of the grass with players being “fitter”, the implication that Murray would have been able to bag a few Wimbledon titles and other major titles during that period. 

My mind is immediately drawn to that quote by the late great commentator Bill Threllfall “statistics, damned statistics!” Statistics can be used in any way you wish, and today, statistics is used as the yardstick in tennis media in the most crazed fashion.  In some ways this is entirely pointless; however, in another way, it might be worth looking at how Andy matches up with the top grass court player of that era, Pete Sampras.  After all, it is clear that if Andy were to win four to five Wimbledons he would have to beat Sampras on more than one occasion as he was the man to beat for eight years.  Since 2008, Wimbledon has been about three or four players who are serious contenders.  In the 1990s, there was one man all the other contenders had to get past.   So, I have decided to bite the bait and look at both players’ strengths and weaknesses in detail.  Then we could see perhaps, how a rivalry like that on grass could have gone.

The first thing to say is that court speed, racquets, strings and tennis balls are rather superfluous to this comparison.  This is because the gap between eras is too small; we are not comparing a forty year decade difference.  Both Murray and Sampras played many of the same adversaries, including Andy Roddick, Lleyton Hewitt, Roger Federer, Marat Safin, Carlos Moya and others. In 2001 Sampras easily dismissed Mikael Youzhny at the US Open; Youzhny is still playing on the tour.  By 1999 Wimbledon was already considered a hard high bouncing grass court which took a mean kick serve; and Sampras won that tournament relatively easily.  What we need to focus on are four things: ability, technique, strategy and intangibles.

Let us look at Andy Murrays’ strengths in detail:

Movement:

This is an easy one; Murray is in the top five players when it comes to movement, in fact, in the top two along with Novak Djokovic at this moment in time.  Whilst Federer and Nadal were at their peak, movement was equal but those two players have clearly declined allowing Murray to move ahead.  Murray is probably at his best on grass as he has demonstrated that throughout his entire career, winning Queens on five occasions which is a record, and Wimbledon twice and counting on both fronts.

First Serve

Murray definitely has one of the best first serves on tour, with the ability to get the speed up to 135mph.  Murray has also finally added the swing serve down the middle on the ad court; for many years Murray over relied on the serve to the backhand on the important points, making him predictable. When Murray gets a high percentage of first serves, he is very difficult to beat.  Rather surprisingly, Murray’s swing serve on the ad court is barely 115mph.  The technical reason is that he collapses on the shot, it is not a fluid motion, but it is clearly well placed enough to win some free points. 

Return of serve

Along with Djokovic, Murray has the best return of serve on the tour.  In fact, I would argue that Murray is better at neutralizing the big serve than Djokovic, Djokovic has displayed on a number of occasions that he can be vulnerable to the big server, we have seen this the last two years at Wimbledon against Kevin Anderson and Sam Querrey.  On grass, the return of serve is one hell of an asset in any era.  Murray is also good at getting the return back low and implementing the passing shots off both wings, that’s due to the fact that superior movement counts for so much on the grass surface and Murray loves to run down everything, much in the way Angelique Kerber does, he hates anything getting passed him.

I felt a few years ago that Murray stood too far back on return of serve, allowing a top class server like Federer to serve wide into the corners giving him no chance.  There is no point being the best returner of serve in the world if you cannot get the ball back into play on a consistent basis.  However, I have noticed this year Murray has been standing in more, and really stepping in on the 2nd serve and going after it, frankly that is the tactic he needs to use if he wants to win more major titles.

Backhand

Murray has one of the best two handers on the tour.  It is his most reliable shot and he has one of the best backhands down the line.  The one problem Murray has is his propensity to push the ball down the middle of the court, which he has to work hard to avoid.

Determination

One of Murray’s key assets.  Murray is a talented player but is not blessed with natural weapons.  Therefore he has had to work extremely hard to get to the top of mens tennis, or at least near the top, he has yet to conquer the number 1 position.  Determination has carried him a long way in terms of professionalism, looking after his body, being disciplined and really building his stamina up from the player who often seemed short of staying power in five set matches. 

Now let us look at Andy’s weaknesses

Second serve

This is the key reason Murray has lost eight out of eleven major finals so far.  Murray gets away with hitting soft 2nd serves against most players on the tour but comes unstuck against the very best players in the world.  However, that is what being in major finals is all about, facing the best players in the world.  Murray has been extremely vulnerable to being attacked, and in the three finals Murray lost to Roger Federer, Federer attacked Murray with the chip and charge tactic, something Federer hardly ever uses against other opponents.  Murray has improved his 2nd serve considerably in the last year and this paid dividends in Wimbledon this year against Milos Raonic in the final. Murray has to remind himself to hit deep 2nd serves in the box at a speed of at least 90mph.

Forehand grip

Murray has had a tendency to pull on this particular shot, often dropping the ball short, making him vulnerable to being attacked.  Murray also went short on his crosscourt forehand in the rallies on many occasions, a no-no against the very best players in the world.  Lendl has worked hard on getting Murray to improve his forehand and be braver, hit into the corners.

Smashes

For some reason, like Novak Djokovic, Murray has one of the weakest smashes in the mens game.  For a player who is considered one of the quickest and most athletic, I find this unexplainable, and therefore will not even try to explain it.

Now, let us look at Pete Sampras’ strengths

Serve

Not a lot to be said, one of the best serves and the best 2nd serve in history under pressure.  Measurements showed on some serves upward of 120mph, Sampras was imparting over 4000rpms on the ball, which is astonishing and unprecedented, see study here.  The ball is very heavy, like a great fast bowler in cricket. The interesting thing is Sampras could swing the serves on the line time and again, frustrating his opponents.  The other interesting thing is Sampras serve on the ad court was often coming in between 125mph and 135 mph, with slice and hitting the line, whereas Murray barely gets above 115mph. This is important because prior to 2000, the speed of serves were timed 20 feet away from contact point.  A 115mph serve in the 1990s is not a 115mph serve today.

Return of Serve

It has always been the case, everyone talks about the Sampras serve, but that doesn’t mean his return of serve was not a strength.  Sampras’ strengths on return was his ability to up his level and break serve when his opponent was least expecting.  He often coasted on a few service games which lulled his opponent into a false sense of security.  Sampras also had a few strategies up his sleeve; he could chip the return on his backhand, drive the return or employ the chip and charge.  In the first part of his career, Sampras liked to run around his backhand to hit the forehand return but changed to the chip and charge in the latter part of his career on the ad court. Against serve volleyers Sampras was very good at getting the return to feet then implementing the passing shot.  If Sampras was in the mood, he would go after every return game; the match was often on his racquet, not the opponent. 

Movement

Sampras was the number one player when it came to movement in the 1990s, hence the reason he was ranked number 1 for over 270 weeks through that decade.  Sampras was the best at turning defence into attack and due to his strong baseline game, could stay in rallies until he got a short ball he could attack with.  Sampras was also one of the quickest players of that era along with Michael Chang, Sergei Brugera and Patrick Rafter.  Sampras had the best athleticism on the tour, the greatest overhead smash (including the famous slam dunk) and high backhand volley, a shot we don’t see as much today, probably because players are not coming to net as often and opponents are not hitting the topspin lob as much as in the past.

Forehand

One of the best forehands and the best running forehand in the open era, often employing the banana shot, more associated with a lefty, Jeff Tarango claims to have taught Sampras that shot when they were teenagers, putting sidespin on the ball, a shot Nadal uses a lot himself down the line as a lefty.  Unlike Murray who often hit his forehand short, Sampras hit the forehand very deep which really comes through the court, Sampras’ forehand is very similar to Ivan Lendl’s.  Lendl had the best forehand in the open era until Federer claimed that mantle in the 2000s.

Determination

Sampras won the US Open as a teenager beating Thomas Muster, Ivan Lendl, McEnroe and Agassi in a row.  Therefore, Sampras knew from an early age he had talent to burn, it was a matter of putting it together to dominate.  Sampras reached the number 1 ranking in April 1993 at the age of 21.  To put in perspective, a 21 year old tennis player today is considered at the same stage a 17 year old would have been considered in past eras.  I think it is easier to acquire determination quickly when you know you have the talent to beat the other players on a regular basis.

Weaknesses

Whenever the Sampras game comes up for discussion, two things are mentioned, Sampras’ game on clay and the high ball to the backhand, which was accentuated on clay, especially in the rallies if the clay courter was running around his backhand to hit loopy forehand drives to Sampras‘ backhand.  That was Sampras’ only real weakness.  Unlike a player such as Grigor Dimitrov who has serious issues with his backhand, Sampras hit his backhand deep, and had excellent passing shots off that wing, which Rafter and Becker could attest to.  But that is the one area players could look to attack on a regular basis.  The interesting thing here is that Murray’s groundstrokes simply are not heavy enough to threaten the Sampras backhand. Like Djokovic, Sampras was a bit more uneasy against power players like Marat Safin.

The Intangibles.

The mistake that is always made, and will be continued to be made by journalists, is reckoning that Murray is great at getting big serves back and thus controlling the match, that is true up to a point. However, Murray struggles mightily against the Federer serve, because Federer moves the ball around the box beautifully and into the corners. Plus Federer backs up his serve with good movement, great groundstrokes and good volleying.  Agassi once noted that Sampras does not serve as big as Australian Wayne Arthurs did back then, but backed up his serve better than anyone he ever played.  Therefore on hardcourts he backed up his serve with movement, staying back and coming in, and on grass coming in all of the time. And Sampras can match Murray in the movement department anytime on grass, being competitive in the baseline rallies.  The trick is not to win every rally in the match, but to win the rallies that matter in the important points, Sampras was one of the best at doing that. This is another reason why straight up statistics can be so misleading; it is a cover for those who don’t want to partake in observational analysis.

Here is another area where there is great confusion. By definition, in the 1990s there should have been a different winner at Wimbledon every year, there were so many big and great servers out there, it should have been shared out: Goran Ivanisevic, Richard Krajicek, Mark Philippoussis, Greg Rusedski, Michael Stich, Boris Becker, and Patrick Rafter. But Sampras won it seven times. How come?  Because Sampras bridged the gap with his rivals by having a better return of serve, better movement and better passing shots.  Sampras was also at his very best against counterpunchers; he enjoyed playing them as they didn’t have much to hurt him with.  A player like Rusedski never made a single semifinal at Wimbledon, and he was considered a grass court specialist.

There are two matches that stick out for me when it comes to gauging Andy Murray’s chances in the 1990s.  The first is Sampras v Henman in the 1999 semifinal, the second being Federer v Murray from the 2012 final.  The common denominator is Paul Annacone, who was the coach in both of those matches.  The tactics and the way the matches unfolded are remarkably similar.  Both Henman and Murray got the early upper hand after an exchange of breaks of serve, Henman and Murray won the first set, Sampras and Federer won the second set right at the death and then slowly took control of the match.  Both Sampras and Federer put pressure on their opponent at the net and both really grappled control by punishing the 2nd serve.  And on both occasions Sampras and Federer had the edge in the groundstroke department, reaping more havoc, even if the stats would show the other guy won a higher percentage of rallies.  Both matches finished with four set victories and no tiebreaks, the bottom line was that the more talented player came through because they had more options.

In the 1990s on grass, I am struggling to see where Murray would be a multi champion at Wimbledon.  Winning the tournament once, why not?  Murray is a counterpuncher and during that period, counterpunchers on a whole did not win the tournament. Andre Agassi won in 1992 but Agassi is much more than a counterpuncher, Agassi was one of the most aggressive returners on the planet.

It is folly to compare eras but it will be done again in future.  But looking at both Murray’s and Sampras’ strengths, there is a clear reason why Murray has lost eight of eleven major finals and why Sampras won fourteen out of eighteen major final appearances. The late 1990s through early 2000s period was a volatile period at both the Australian Open and French Open.  I believe this is where Murray could have had great opportunities, with the game he has.   

We must remember, the game Murray has acquired is not good enough to be number for long periods in any era, it is not aggressive enough and his 2nd serve has been too weak.  If Murray can get to number 1 and win a few more majors at the tail end of his career, it will be one hell of a testament to determination.