Previewing the 2025 WTA Season

2024 was a year of flux and transition on the WTA Tour.  A year which saw Ayrna Sabalenka finish number 1 over Iga Swiatek.  The WTA Finals took place in Riyadh Saudi Arabia with all the controversy that brings.  Plus we had the obligatory scandal with world number 2 Iga Swiatek failing a drug test and serving a one month suspension.

This sets up the 2025 season as there are going to be many more stories and continued fallout from the previous twelve months. Let’s take a look at the players set to have the biggest influence in 2025 if things go to their plan.

Aryna Sabalenka

Sabalenka achieved her dream of finishing 2024 as World Number 1 and validating herself as the best player.  The year started great with her defending the Australian Open title, easily beating Qinwen Zheng in the final.  Sabelenka also won titles in Cincinnati in August and Wuhan in October.

In September, Sabalenka won her first US Open title with a strong performance against Jessica Pegula.  This victory atoned for the dreadful US Open final she played in 2023 against Coco Gauff.  A final she threw away with a series of diabolical errors. 

Sabalenka’s great summer and autumn run allowed her to move ahead of Iga Swiatek and claim the number 1 position, finishing the year with four titles won.  Now, this does sound an underwhelming amount of titles for a year end number 1 player. However, we are in a period of WTA history where number 1 players win a relatively small number of titles. Swiatek won seven titles in 2022 and six in 2023 which is good.  Four is quite small.

So, where does that leave Sabalenka for her 2025 prospects?  Simple, she needs to become more consistent.  Sabalenka went eight months without winning a title after winning the Australian Open, which is not good enough for an elite player.  Also, Sabalenka has to start winning clay titles to avoid being labelled a hardcourt specialist.  Sabalenka is competitive on clay and grass which makes it slightly surprising she is not winning any titles on those surfaces.  She has won Madrid twice in 2021 and 2023 but no clay titles anywhere else so far. 

How does Sabalenka become more consistent? In the past a combination of nerves and unforced errors did for her in big match situations.  Hardcourts are perfect surfaces, not clay and grass. Clay and grass require more control and more improvisation. The ability to adapt to any bad bounces and varying conditions form day to day.  Sabalenka tends to over hit the ball which is a problem if there are varying conditions.  Hardcourt tournaments tend to be played either indoors or in very good weather, not much variation in other words.

Sabalenka's goals for 2025 will be to retain her number 1 ranking, win major tournaments and win tournaments on clay on grass.

Iga Swiatek

Iga Swiatek had an incredible 2024. Not always for positive reasons but her name was on the front and back pages of newspapers worldwide. Mainly for failing a drug test in the late summer which caused her to serve a one month ban by the WTA.  It is almost ironic that both Jannik Sinner and Iga Swiatek are two players who are decidedly low key but thrust into the limelight for failing performance enhancing drug tests. 

As for the tennis itself, Swiatek’s 2024 fell into two halves. The first half of 2024 saw her win the Qatar Open, Indian Wells, Madrid Open, Italian Open and the French Open.  The biggest titles bar the Australian Open won by Swiatek. However, the second half of the season proved to be somewhat of a disaster.  

Swiatek made no impression at Wimbledon losing to Yulia Putintseva in the 3^rd round.  Swiatek then had a shocker at the Olympics; losing to Qinwen Zheng in the semifinal when she was red hot favourite. The pressure seemed to get to her. After the Olympics things did not improve; a semifinal loss in Cincinnati and a quarterfinal loss at the US Open to Pegula ensured Swiatek won no titles for the rest of the year.  Five titles between February and June, no titles from July to October.

This was not a good look and Swiatek took action, parting ways with her long term coach Tomasz Wiktorowski and hiring Belgian coach Wim Fissette.  An appointment I question as Wim Fissette has coached a number of top players over the last five years, spending on average 12 months or less with each player.  On the surface this appears a strange decision by Swiatek and I hope not one that smacks of desperation.

Where does this leave Swiatek for the new season?  One of the reasons she changed coaches was due to her game being telegraphed by the opposition. Swiatek has cultivated a very typical game. Back in 2022 I took a look at her game in depth and noted her problems on grass.  That has now translated to hardcourts.  Swiatek’s serve is readable and she relies too much on the kicker serve on the ad court.  Her forehand is also an issue; she seems to need too much time.

This is surprising as surfaces are not even as fast as they used to be. There are no indoor carpet surfaces, acrylic hardcourts take more spin and are slower, whilst grass is not as fast as previous decades. It is disappointing Swiatek struggles on what is considered faster surfaces (by today’s standards). Swiatek also tweaked her service action earlier this year but I don’t think that has made a profound difference to her game. 

Swiatek’s task in 2025 is a relatively simple one.  Make a splash early with Wim Lissette and reveal a more varied tennis game, with more enterprise and net play. Vary her serve more with some slice to go with the kick on the ad court. Plus win titles all year round, not just in the spring and early summer.

Coco Gauff

It is incredible to think Coco Gauff is only twenty years old as she seems like a veteran already. But she is still learning the game; making big mistakes, winning big titles, in the Top 4. Inconsistent is the word that springs to mind despite the success so far. We haven’t seen players so experienced at the age of 20 since Maria Sharapova in 2006 when she won the US Open, her then second grand slam title.

Of course with this success comes a lot of expectation, which Coco is not quite ready for. Due to the fact that her game still has some technical flaws which need plugging.  As for her year in 2024, Coco started off very well, winning the title in Auckland and reaching the semifinal of the Australian Open. There she lost a tight match to eventual champion Ayrna Sabalenka in two sets.  Coco then had a rather patchy period from the spring right through to the autumn. On the clay she lost to Swiatek at the semifinal stage of both the Italian Open and French Open. Coco also lost to American Emma Navarro at the rd. 16 stage of both Wimbledon and the US Open, where she was defending champion (a very disappointing defeat as it turned out).

Interspersed within that, Coco flopped at the Olympics in Paris, losing in the round of 16 to Croatian Donna Vekic.

Coco finally came good in the autumn, where she won the China Open in October beating Karolina Muchova in the final. Coco then claimed her biggest title of the season by winning the WTA Finals in Saudi Arabia; coming from a set down to beat Qinwen Jheng in the final.  Therefore, Coco finished the year with three titles. One in January and two in October.  In the wider scheme of things, that’s not great. And yet again it seems the current Top 4 players win very few tournaments through the course of the season.

Coco parted ways with her coach Brad Gilbert after the US Open. There were clearly communication issues between the two and it seemed Coco’s forehand got progressively worse. As a tactician, Brad Gilbert has always believed in defence first and build your game from there. Coco’s elite speed and athleticism is a blessing and a hindrance. A hindrance in that she needs to find the balance of taking the initiative.

To do that she needs to improve her forehand and serve. Coco has appointed Matt Daly to her team and is working on her technical issues. The reports are that she is working on various forehand grips (experimenting).  My opinion is her stance is the bigger issue, hitting off the back foot too often and over rotating her hip. Not getting forward momentum because of her stance which is too open and she doesn’t plant her front foot.  Her stance is not semi open (the modern stance of choice since the 1990s).

What I do know from watching tennis for decades is that top players have varying grips. Grips are not usually a hindrance to a top player progressing. Many players have achieved great things with western grips. From Jim Courier to Amelie Mauresmo to Rafael Nadal. It might be difficult for Coco to progress higher up the rankings if she is worried about her game from a technical standpoint.  However, her priority will be to win titles more consistently, I don’t see her going for number 1 at this stage if she is worried about her overall game. 

Elena Rybakina

Elena Rybakina is not currently in the Top 4. But it is fair to say that most tennis fans see her as a legitimate member of the Top Four Clan. Overall it was a disappointing season for Rybakina for a number of reasons. But I think her decisions taken in October were extremely positive and hopefully fruitful for 2025.

Rybakina started off the 2024 season well by winning Brisbane international, taking out Sabalenka in the final with a surprising 6-3 6-0 score line. Rybakina then played the Adelaide International before the Australian Open and lost in the quarterfinal. Now on the face of it, it does seem a strange decision for an elite player to play two tournaments before the Australian Open. Unless she was not expecting to win Brisbane and already gave her commitment to the Adelaide organisers. On the other hand, there was nothing to stop her pulling out as she had all the tennis she needed to play a major tournament.

That sense of overplaying found her out quickly, as she duly got dumped out in the 2^nd round of the Australian Open, losing in three sets to Anna Blinkova in a third set tiebreak.  So, despite Brisbane a disappointing start to the season.  Rybakina then lost finals in Qatar and Miami, losing to Swiatek and Danielle Collins. The result in Miami another surprise.  Rybakina lost in the Madrid semifinal to Sabalenka and pulled out of the Italian Open through injury.  By the time Roland Garros came around, Rybakina was not looking the assured player we came to expect. In the quarterfinal she had another surprising loss, this time to Jasmine Paolini, who went on to make the final.

In her favoured grass season, Rybakina retired in Berlin but was ready for Wimbledon, where she was the hot favourite to take the title. However, unfortunately for her, she ran into Barbora Krejcikova playing brilliant and resilient tennis, Rybakina’s dream to win a second Wimbledon over for another year.  Rybakina withdrew from the Olympics and Canada, lost early in Cincinnati and retired sadly after one match at the US Open. 

It was clear at this stage there were issues behind the scenes. It soon became apparent that Rybakina had to rid herself of her coach Stefano Vukov who was accused of being abusive throughout their time together. He was often seen as too exuberant in the players’ box, letting everyone know his views on proceedings, the opposite of serenity.  After an extended away period from the game, Rybakina announced she was joining forces with Novak Djokovic’s old coach Goran Ivanisevic.  I think this is an excellent choice.  Ivanisevic played a similar game to Rybakina and no doubt understands the transition game really well. I think he can improve her fitness and willingness to stay in rallies for longer.  Which will then allow her to take the initiative at the right moments to put pressure on her opponents. 

I said in my 2024 WTA season preview that Rybakina was not playing at her capacity, she could get even better and it’s down to her and her coaching staff.  I think now Rybakina has the right coaching staff in place.  2025 could be a good year provided she stays clear of niggling injuries.  A task for Goran Ivanisevic will be to improve her strength and conditioning to withstand the rigours of an eleven month tour.

Qinwen Zheng

Qinwen Zheng was probably the biggest story on the WTA Tour in 2024.  She showed some promise in 2023 but this year saw a complete breakout.  She has a large Chinese audience following her every move to stardom and superstardom (provided she can win major titles going forward).

Zheng started the year with a bang, reaching the final of the Australian Open, losing to defending champion Aryna Sabalenka, relatively easily. However, what was interesting is up until the final, none of Zheng’s opponents were ranked higher than 50. Not her problem of course but clearly that event was all over the place. Zheng made no real impression on the tour over the next months and her first round loss at Wimbledon was confirmation of her ordinary performances.

However, something changed, quite dramatically. This started with Zheng winning a small event in Palermo. Not sure whether it was to get match practice on clay before the Olympics, or to give her some confidence but it worked. Zheng beat Karolina Muchova in the final in three sets. This propelled Zheng to the Olympics where she played a crazy match against Angelique Kerber in the quarterfinal.  Winning a marathon which finished with a third set tiebreak. This defeat basically retired Kerber from the WTA Tour. In fact, Zheng already took out the dangerous Emma Navarro the previous round also in three sets. 

Zheng went on to defeat tournament favourite Swiatek in the semifinal in straight sets. Swiatek did not seem herself, and Zheng was able to capitalise.  Usually the higher seed comes through because the opponent cannot capitalise on their wobble. Zheng was having none of it. Zheng’s reward for her efforts was a date with Donna Vekic of Croatia in the final. Vekic is a good player and Wimbledon semifinalist but a beatable opponent and Zheng did just that.  Taking the match 6-2 6-3 and winning the gold medal for China; a massive achievement.

Zheng continued that good form into the US Open, taking out Vekic again, this time in rd. 16 but losing to Sabalenka in the quarterfinal.  Zheng lost in the semifinal of the China Open to Muchova and the Wuhan final to Sabalenka, by now her absolute nemesis… Zheng won the Pan Pacific Open in Tokyo against Sofia Kenin, a player on the comeback trail and remarkably ranked 155 on the WTA computer. This set up Zheng for the WTA finals in Riyadh.  She took out Krejcikova in the semifinal but lost a close battle to Coco Gauff in the final.

The great results in the second half of the season propelled Zheng from Top 20 to Top 5. She looks to have the capabilities to stay there, as long as she can avoid injuries and loss of form.

However, the thing that stands out in 2024 is the ambivalence of Zheng’s fellow players towards her. There definitely seems to be a collective issue with Zheng, with players “calling out” her attitude and demeanour on court. It is very strange and almost unexplainable. If a player has an issue with another player, it can be put down as one of those things. However, when multiple players seem to have an issue, you take more notice. I am not sure what the back story is behind the scenes but we will have to keep an eye on this in 2025 to see how things develop.

As for Zheng’s game, I would describe it as a bit hit and miss. Now, she has been hitting more than missing. But it doesn’t take a lot for that type of game to unravel. What Zheng needs to do is ensure she has rock solid technique, and ensure she applies enough topspin on her shots at all times. When the bad times come, the technique will keep her ranking and performances at a certain level.  If she doesn’t work on those aspects, bad form could see her fall down the rankings quick.  Let’s see if 2025 delivers a major title or a slide down the rankings.

 Other players to watch:

Jasmine Paolini

Jasmine Paolini had an incredible 2024 reaching the finals of both the French Open and Wimbledon, and finishing the year off as a Billie Jean King Cup winner for the Italians. Paolini is currently ranked number 4 but I will suggest that this is a false position which she will find difficult to maintain.  It will be hard for Paolini to win a major title but she has to give it a try.

Jessica Pegula

Pegula is the 2024 US Open finalist and once again had a solid season.  Pegula looks remarkably similar to Jennifer Capriati on the court, in both height and game style. She doesn’t have Capriati’s fire and angst.

I recall watching highlights of Pegula on YouTube at the WTA Finals against Coco Gauff. In one point she hit an excellent lob over Coco’s head. Instead of following to the net seeing Coco run to the baseline, Pegula retreated hastily to her own baseline and ended up losing the point. To me, that one moment shows she is not grand slam winning material. Lacking initiative, critical thinking, enterprise, hunger. Pegula will protest and say she has worked damn hard to get where she is. But those moments are the things that take you to a higher level. Hard work alone is not enough.

Barbora Krejcikova

Krejcikova finished the season ranked 10. She reached the semifinal of the WTA Finals and won Wimbledon in fine style, taking out Rybakina in the semifinal and Paolini in the final. Besides those highlights, Krejcikova had a patchy year, constantly coming back from injuries.  Hopefully in 2025, she can stay clear of injuries and become consistent. She is capable of winning more big titles if she can stay healthy.

Mirra Andreeva

A new teenage sensation, Andreeva made the semifinal of the French Open. However, the occasion was too big for her, and she lost easily to Paolini.  Still only 17 years old, one to watch for the future. 2025 may be a year too soon but who knows what might happen.

Carlos Alcaraz Serve – The Missing Link To Greatness

 

Carlos Alcaraz has won two grand slam titles and is ranked number 2 in the world. 

Any player would be happy with that but Alcaraz is not going through the best of times.  Not only did he crash out in the quarterfinal of the Australian Open to Alexander Zverev but then watched his rival Jannik Sinner win his first major title. Sinner coming from two sets down in the final against Danill Medvedev.

Surprisingly Alcaraz has lost every important match he has played since his Wimbledon triumph last July, losing to all of his main rivals on the ATP Tour.

In Cincinnati, Alcaraz lost the final to Djokovic which lasted almost four hours when Djokovic looked dead on his feet after 30 minutes! Yet still managed to win the match hours later.  Alcaraz then went on to lose the US Open semi final to Daniil Medvedev in four sets when he was defending champion.

As the autumn rolled along Alcaraz lost to Grigor Dimitrov in the round of 16 in the Shanghai Masters.  Then in the much-anticipated semifinal of the ATP World Tour championships, Alcaraz went down rather meekly to Djokovic in straight sets. 

Alcaraz’s defeat to Zverev in the quarterfinal of the Australian Open is part of a trend. An underlying issue which goes under the radar, probably due to his style of play. 

Now, of course Alcaraz is still only 20 years old and is having the inevitable dip since his meteoric rise to number 1.  This dip arises from a few factors in no absolute order; media pressure, fan pressure, and opponents working out his game.  In that scenario, for every top elite professional who plays sport, they need to keep improving and add elements to their game to stay ahead of the pack. 

The reasons behind Alcaraz’s rise to be first male teenage number 1 in 2022 are undisputed. He has a complete game; he can attack and defend, with elite athleticism and speed. Those attributes take you to the top quick.  Thanks to this, big things are predicted for Alcaraz but he has put unnecessary pressure on himself by declaring he wants to be the best in history. Unusual for a 20-year-old to make such a declaration and perhaps an unwise move. 

To be among the greatest everything has to work. And there is one area which was slightly neglected when his game was constructed as a junior; the serve. As of now, Alcaraz has a world class game but not a world class serve.  Alcaraz generally uses his serve to set up the point, to start off a rally or be in an offensive position.  Classic clay court philosophy, as clay is generally not conducive to serving a lot of aces and un-returnables.  With hardcourts generally slower and indoor carpet off the tour since the late 2000s, understandable that elite younger players do not work to perfect the serve as much as past players.

Collectively the serves of Next Gen and Gen Z players are very good but not top quality. Stefanos Tsitsipas, Holge Rune, Andrey Rublev come into this category.  Sinner has been working hard to improve his serve to make it a weapon. However, if Alcaraz wants to go down as the greatest, having a serve which is not top quality will be a hindrance to his quest.  Let us get the elephant out of the room, as some people reading this will say his serve is great, he wins matches. This is all true but the statistics will reveal certain information.  Let’s look at those statistics in isolation.

Citing ATP statistics, in the 2023 season Alcaraz had a 1st serve percentage of 66%.  Alcaraz won 72% of his 1st serves and 56% of his 2nd serves. Alcaraz also hit 302 aces throughout the course of the season.  To round off, Alcaraz saved 65% of break points faced.

https://www.atptour.com/en/players/Carlos-Alcaraz/A0E2/player-stats

Besides a very good 1st serve percentage, other aspects of those figures are not the best. With 72% points won on 1st serve, he won less than three quarters of those points.  56% of points won on 2nd serve is good but 302 aces for a full season is quite low.  In the 2019 season on the WTA Tour, Ashleigh Barty hit over 400 aces, where all WTA matches are best of 3 sets including grand slam tournaments. In 2021, Barty hit 325 aces in 49 matches.

As for Alcaraz’s return game, in 2023 he won 32% of those. That’s a good percentage for a top player but I feel Alcaraz needs to do that.  However, unlike in the WTA Tour, in the men’s game it is relatively more difficult to keep breaking serve if you get broken yourself.

These statistics confirm what my “eye test” has been observing for some time. Which is in the biggest matches, Alcaraz is consistently struggling to hold serve against the best players.  This is a big problem for him.  Alcaraz needs to raise his 1st serve points won to 75% and above.   

Ironically, these stats show precisely the reason Alcaraz is so loved by fans and media. He hits outrageous and flashy shots on virtually every service game he plays.  This is not sustainable for a long career, where he often has to stretch every sinew to come up with something spectacular. He is at a crossroads, even this early in his career.  Alcaraz has to considerably improve his serving statistics, but the question is how to do it.

Alcaraz could take to the practice court and work on serve placement. As of now his serve is in straight lines, it is not moving around enough in the service box.  He does not have the lefty advantage of Nadal who can swing the ball away from the returners’ forehand.  Alcaraz needs to find more aces and unreturnables.  He is not the tallest but that shouldn’t be a big issue. Barty was short by WTA standards but with excellent placement, technique and timing delivered many aces. Speed is not the issue, placement and deception plus speed are the order of the day.

Alcaraz should also look to vary his serve much more and not overly rely on the kick serve. Improving his serve will improve his overall confidence. If he can hold serve more easily, he can go after the return of serve with more relaxation.

What we can deduce is with Alcaraz’s current serve and statistics, he is not on course to become the greatest player in history.  In fact, it will be an almighty struggle to win up to 10 major tournaments.  Pete Sampras and Roger Federer used their all-court game, good defence and elite athleticism and based their whole game around their serve.

The statistics show both Sampras and Federer consistently won around 80% of 1st serve points and consistently over 50% of 2nd serve points. That’s a much better package to dominating opponents. One important feature of both Sampras and Federer is that they won service games quickly and efficiently, rushing their opponents. Many of their big finals were won in straight sets.

Djokovic is different as he able to dominate by consistently winning 75% of 1st serve points and 55% of 2nd serve points. However, Djokovic is a steadier player and will not make as many errors as an all court attacking player, it does not need to be 80% for Djokovic.  Playmakers like Alcaraz need a higher percentage.

Coach Juan Carlos Ferrero proclaimed Alcaraz is a hybrid of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. A compliment and potential burden.  Each of those three players have their own way. Alcaraz will at some point have to find his own identity. That means forming his own game plan, finding patterns that work and sticking to them over a period of time.

His current serving stats leaves him on course to win up to 5 majors if everything goes well in his career. To win more than 10, he will have to improve those serving statistics. To date only eight players in over one hundred years of tennis have won more than 10 major tournaments.

He has the talent to do it, now for the application and practice.

Previewing The 2024 WTA Season

 

We are on the eve of another season in the WTA (in fact already begun). 

It is a bit strange the season starts before the turn of the year but tennis chooses to be concertinaed so they shouldn’t turn and complain of too much tennis.. 

Having said that, 2023 was a very interesting year with the top players showing up and claiming the majority of the big tournaments. Women’s tennis is in a good place despite the obvious disquiet off the court with how the WTA Tour is run administratively. Can the players deliver again in 2024? I think so, let’s look at the players who can make the biggest waves.

Iga Swiatek:

Swiatek had a very strong finish to 2023 and will be looking to start 2024 in the same fashion. Despite the many criticisms beforehand, Swiatek dominated the WTA championships in Cancun in Mexico, winning every match in straight sets and thrashing Pegula in the final.  However, it’s a new year and a clean slate, and Swiatek will have to start all over again.

Starting with the Australian Open in January. Swiatek is yet to make a final there and has not been a factor so far in her career, thus will want to correct that.  This will not be easy as the old saying used to be that hardcourt is a leveller. Meaning, clay court specialists and grass court specialists had an opportunity to win on the surface. Those days are more or less over but there are still players who favour one surface over others, and in the main Swiatek is at her best on clay.   At the Australian Open it is more difficult because a lot more players fancy their chances of success. At the same time, Swiatek showed she can play on hardcourts with her win at the US Open in 2022.  This will be a great opportunity to show she can go far at the event in January.

Likewise Wimbledon, as Swiatek has yet to make a semifinal there either.  Swiatek is definitely struggling to adapt to grass. My opinion is the lack of a transition game is hurting her. She is not consistently able to take advantage of the short ball and come to the net to finish points.  This is something she needs to address. Also, her forehand grip seems to be a hindrance but I do not see any reason why she cannot overcome these two problems to really progress. To win at Wimbledon, she will have to overcome these two issues sufficiently.

As for the rest of 2023, Swiatek will want to consolidate her number 1 position. Win at least one 1000 level tournament, win a major away from clay and stay ahead of the pack. Those will be three of her main goals.  During 2023 I thought Swiatek’s confidence went down a bit, she was not playing diagonal tennis as much, but playing a more central (neutral) position. In my eyes her forehand is not as effective there, as her stance subconsciously switches from semi open which gives her more options, to hitting more off the backfoot which makes her forehand far less effective overall. It will be interesting to see how her confidence affects her strategy and style of play in 2024. 

Aryna Sabalenka

Sabalenka had the breakthrough season she had been dreaming of since she became a professional tennis player. Winning her first major tournament and spending weeks as number 1 in the world. Sabalenka achieved both in 2024 by winning the Australian Open in January and becoming world number 1 in September.

Two great achievements; although ironically, it could have been so much better. Sabalenka had a few opportunities to become Number 1 sooner. Particularly in July if she made the Wimbledon final. Sabalenka finally became number 1 in September in spite of losing the US Open final against Coco Gauff. Sabalenka then had a great chance to end the year as number 1 but blew her semifinal against Swiatek in Cancun. So, Sabalenka will be looking to be even stronger in 2024.

This will not be easy, as she will have to come out of the traps fast and defend her Australian Open title.  A semifinal appearance will be seen as an honourable effort, winning again will be a big bonus.  Sabalenka won 3 titles in 2023 including Madrid on clay. She can win more titles in 2024, she must aim for 5 titles at least including a major. 

Sabalenka possesses all of the attributes to be a great player. She is potentially a great grass court player, with two Wimbledon semifinal appearances in a row. Sabalenka is also very good on hardcourts.  And with her big game and serve should be a threat at the French Open.  Sabalenka has a great serve, great groundstrokes and a good transition game when she uses it, no doubt helped by being a very good doubles player. Sabalenka also has good athleticism and can defend when needed.

These attributes suggest she should be a Number 1 player consistently. But then the X factor comes into play. That X factor is nerves. Sabalenka showed in the US Open final that when nerves get to her, she could hit the ball all over the place. Some of her forehands were nearly hitting the backboard!  Intriguing how a top pro could lose control like that. Looking at it logically, those shots suggest the racquet is strung way too loose, to lose control so dramatically. But if I apply common sense, I don’t expect that from a top pro. 

Therefore, it has to be down to Sabalenka to control her shots much more often. Maybe as the coaches would say, put more “shape” on her shots. Meaning, more topspin for control, the balls need to dip in deep in the court and not sail way long. In Sabalenka’s case, maybe technical adjustments are required so when she is nervous, she doesn’t miss so sensationally badly.

That could be the difference between Sabalenka becoming a truly great player over the next five years; controlling her nerves better.

Coco Gauff

In many ways, Gauff is the big story of 2023.  Winning her first major title at the US Open when it looked like she was not ready to win such a big event. But Gauff was ready, which is the main thing.

Gauff has followed a recent trend of teenagers winning the US Open.  Matching Bianca Andreescu in 2019 and Emma Raducanu in 2021.  Before that, Maria Sharapova won as a teenager in 2006 and Svetlana Kuznetsova in 2004. It does not happen often but three times in five years is impressive.

In fact, up until the summer hardcourt season, Gauff was not having a great year. She lost early in the Australian Open, lost badly to Swiatek in the French Open quarterfinal, then lost in the 1^st round of Wimbledon.  Thus Gauff decided to invite legendary coach Brad Gilbert to her coaching team, to provide strategic advice and motivation. Well, it worked!  She won Washington, then Cincinnati and the US Open; an incredible summer.   

What prompted such a turnaround?  During the US Open, Sky Sports US Open coverage invited Brad Gilbert for a chat and he made some interesting comments.  Gilbert said he took no notice of statistics and approached things in a much more old school fashion, what he sees with his eyes and feeling for the situation.  In an age of statistics, damn statistics, it must be refreshing for a 19-year-old to hear such a different approach. 

There were occasions when Gauff ignored Gilbert during matches and did her own thing, which is also interesting.  The US Open final was a combination of complete and utter determination by Gauff to come back from a set down, and bizarre errors from Sabalenka who at times looked more like a pub player.

This is now a great platform for Gauff to launch her career and at some point attack the number 1 ranking over the next 18 months. Gauff has already made a French Open final which shows she can play on clay.  Grass is a bit more difficult for her but doable. Overall Gauff won four tournaments in 2023 so a good return. In 2024, Gauff will no doubt have many goals. One would be to do well on clay and grass. The other would be to beat Swiatek in a grand slam tournament, which would be a huge confidence boost, should they draw each other. 2024 is also Olympic year, I am sure all top players will be targeting Olympic gold.

As for her game, Gauff has many attributes. Gauff has a strong first serve, very good backhand and is probably the best athlete on tour.  Her forehand is an issue and it is amazing she was able to win the US Open despite this.  Gauff tends to hit her forehand pivoting off the backfoot, which makes it erratic and does not get much penetration. At times she is forced too far behind the baseline as a result, making her vulnerable to attack. It is interesting how many players play this way, and are often genuine counterpunchers; relying on their speed to get them out of trouble.

Hitting off the backfoot too often is a recipe for a career of long-term injuries, especially to hip, back and wrist. I am quite frankly amazed players are coming through playing this way and it is still endorsed by coaches and analysts. The info from past decades is all there: Sergei Bruguera, Gustavo Kuerten, Guillermo Coria, Andy Murray, Amelie Mauresmo and many others suffered terrible injuries.  In the men’s game Alexander Zverev hits off the backfoot well behind the baseline and it makes no sense.

I would like to see Gauff work on her forehand technique and stance.  Gauff has stated her dream is to be a dominant number 1. However, there has never been a dominant number 1 in the history of tennis who hits their forehand off the back foot.  Can Gauff be number 1 in future? Yes. To dominate everyone and be number 1 for hundreds of weeks? Unlikely unless she modifies her techniqe and way of playing.

Regarding 2024, Gauff has the opportunity to build on her success, and win another major title. That would be good progress.

Elena Rybakina

Rybakina rounded out the Top 4 during the 2023 WTA season. Statistically, Rybakina was the least successful. Why? Well she did not win a grand slam title. However, Rybakina did make the Australian Open final, losing to Sabalenka after being a set up. Her other results in the majors were not so good. 3^rd round at the French Open, quarterfinal at Wimbledon and 3^rd round of the US Open. Rybakina did win two big titles at Indian Wells and the Foro Italico in Rome.

In many ways Rybakina flattered to deceive during 2023.  She suffered injuries at the wrong time and when her fans would have expected her to kick on and be more of a threat, she went the other way. At the same time, when I watch Rybakina play I would like her to do more on the tennis court more often. I get the impression she is playing within herself and may be holding something back; or perhaps not aware she can be an even better player than she currently is.  

There are restrictions, Rybakina stands at 1 metre 84 so movement wise not the fastest.  Hence Rybakina is not able to play defence as well as some of her opponents which can be a hindrance to winning many titles. 

Rybakina does have a great serve and can transition to net very well.  2024 should be an interesting season; if she can keep injuries to a minimum and play a lot of matches to keep sharp, there is no reason she cannot challenge to win Wimbledon.  Not sure at this stage of her credentials to win the US Open. However, as she made the Australian Open final last year, she does have it in her to win on hardcourts.  Rybakina has the added bonus of having a good head to head record against Swiatek, who clearly does not enjoy playing her.

I think Rybakina can get an extra 10% out of her game to become a real great player. It is up to her and her coaching staff to take that extra step.

Other players to watch:

Jessica Pegula

Pegula finished 2023 strongly, reaching the final of WTA championships in Cancun before getting unceremoniously thrashed 6-1 6-0 by Swiatek.  Pegula did win the Canadian Open (Rogers Cup) in August but made no impression at the four grand slam events, her best being the quarterfinal in Wimbledon. Pegula’s game, height and demeanour reminds me of Jennifer Capriati but despite being a Top 5 player, I struggle to see her as a serious contender to win a major tournament in 2024.

Ons Jabeur

We could have been talking about Jabeur in much better terms and gravitas. After taking out both Rybakina and Sabalenka in the quarterfinals and semifinals of Wimbledon, destiny seemed in her hands. Jabeur was set to be the first player from Africa to win a major tournament. Unfortunately the final against Vondrousova turned out to be a video nasty.  As someone who followed tennis closely since the 1990s, it was the first time I have seen such a poor final by a clear favourite. 

In the past the favoured player has lost finals, it happens. Marat Safin at the 2002 Australian Open against Thomas Johansson. Maria Sharapova against Serena Williams in 2004 Wimbledon.  What we haven’t seen until now was a complete capitulation due to nerves where talent had zero to do with the equation. It was a painful experience watching it.

Whether Jabeur can create another opportunity to win a major final remains to be seen.

Ludmila Samsanova

A Top 20 player who seems to have the talent to be Top 10 material and possible grand slam contender, but yet to show it at the highest level.

Karolina Muchova

Finalist at the French Open and semifinalist at the US Open.  Will be tough to repeat that in 2024.

Marketa Vondrousova

Wimbledon champion in 2023! Not sure what to make of Vondrousova as a Top 10 player.  Does she have the consistency or game to stay there for a long period of time? To do that she will need to either win a few tournaments, or get to the semis and finals consistently. She doesn’t appear to be that kind of player but happy to be proved wrong.

Special mentions for the comeback queens Naomi Osaka and Angelique Kerber, both returning after maternity leave / forced absence from the tour.

 

 

 

 

Iga Swiatek - Back to Business

  

It has proved to be a very interesting year for Iga Swiatek.

Swiatek started the year as clear number 1 but suffered a shock straight sets defeat to Elena Rybakina in the 4^th round of the Australian Open.  This immediately got fans and media talking that she would struggle to retain her number 1 position.  Both Ayrna Sabalenka and Rybakina took advantage with each getting to the final; Sabalenka coming from a set down to take her first major title.

Fast forward to the clay court season in the spring, Sabalenka defeated Swiatek in the final of Madrid and was now hunting the number 1 ranking.  In Rome, Swiatek succumbed to Rybakina yet again; a player who is becoming a nemesis for her. Swiatek retired in the 3^rd set after losing the 2^nd set on a tiebreak.

At the French Open, Swiatek retained her title with a strong run to the final taking out Coco Gauff in the quarterfinal and Beatrice Haddad Maia in the semifinal. However, Swiatek had an almighty tussle in the final against Czech player Karolina Muchova, where it looked for a while that Muchova would prevail. However, Swiatek dug deep in the 3^rd set, and came back from a break down to take her 3^rd French Open title.  I assume this is her most satisfying win, due to been under media and fan pressure for the first time as world number 1.

Her joy was relatively short lived though, the grass court season proving her Achilles heel for the second year in a row. This time, Swiatek managed to get to the quarterfinals after a tight 4^th round match with Belinda Bencic.  Swiatek would not escape the quarterfinals, Elena Svitolina taking the match 7-5, 6-7, 6-2. It seems clear as of now Swiatek’s style of play is not conducive to grass, which is a little surprising as she is a junior Wimbledon champion. 

Swiatek was in danger of losing her number 1 ranking but Sabalenka was unable to capitalise, losing in the semifinal to Ons Jabeur.

The hardcourt season cannot be described as a success in any way. In fact, it was relatively poor.  Swiatek lost in the semifinal in Canada to Jessica Pegula in three sets. Incredibly her serve was broken a whopping eleven times throughout the course of the match :-0 

Coco Gauff was able to record her first ever win against Swiatek in the semifinal of Cincinnati, prevailing 7-6, 3-6, 6-4.  Things got worse for Swiatek, as she reached the fourth round of the US Open, then lost to the mercurial Jelena Ostapenko, Even more remarkable is Swiatek has never beaten Ostapenko in an official match, losing for the fourth time in a row. This is extremely unusual for a number 1 player in any era, to have such a poor record against essentially a Top 20 player.

This meant Sabalenka was finally able to claim the world number 1 ranking by making the final of the US Open. She couldn’t celebrate too hard after losing the US Open final to Coco Gauff despite being a set up.

By this stage the knives were firmly out for Swiatek, predicting her imminent demise.  Comparisons were made to former World Number 1s who lost the position and never recovered; from Lleyton to Hewitt to Jim Courier.  Those with cool heads attempted to explain that it is quite normal for a player to lose the number 1 ranking after a while, then through hard work and perseverance, regain the number 1 position at a future date.  For whatever reason, a sizeable faction did not want to hear this and were openly questioning Swiatek’s mental state after a couple of press conferences and statements which perhaps did not hit the mark. Swiatek also stopped wearing the Ukraine ribbon in her cap, which also attracted a lot of “comments”.

Swiatek did recover some confidence before the WTA Championships in the autumn by winning the China Open. In that run, Swiatek beat Caroline Garcia, Coco Gauff and Luidmilla Samsanova. But it is the WTA Championships where Swiatek showed the world what she is all about. Winning every match in straight sets, including against Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova and US Open champion Coco Gauff.  With the year end number 1 ranking on the line, Swiatek took down Sabalenka 6-3, 6-2 in the semifinal and thrashed Jessica Pegula 6-1, 6-0 to reclaim the number 1 ranking in spectacular fashion. Swiatek regained the number 1 ranking from Sabalenka in the very last match of the season!

The 2023 season was remarkable for Swiatek in a number of ways.  The first is Swiatek won a major title by retaining the French Open.  Despite appearing to struggle mightily in many big tournaments, Swiatek compiled a 67-to-11-win loss record which is mightily impressive and shows she was often in contention. Plus it is not possible to get a bigger confidence boost than winning the WTA finals in style and regaining the number 1 position.

Swiatek has a few hurdles to climb in 2024.  She is yet to make an Australian Open final and as things stand is not a favourite to win the Wimbledon title. Slightly surprising because as mentioned earlier, she is a junior Wimbledon champion but due to her style of play, it is proving difficult. Amelie Mauresmo won Wimbledon with an extreme western forehand grip but her strengths were her beautiful volleys, topspin backhand, slice backhand, strong serve and athletic ability. Swiatek possesses the athletic ability but is lacking a transition game and strong net play. Swiatek also does not use the slice backhand on the low ball. Swiatek needs more variety in her game.

I also noticed Swiatek slightly amended her tactics in the 2023 season.  She seems not play the diagonal game as much as throughout 2022. This could be due to a slight dip in confidence, where she is playing the middle of the court. I am not sure this suits as her forehand is not quite as effective from that position.  Swiatek needs to make space to hit the ball effectively with an extreme grip, improvising is not as easy for her and hence starts hitting off the backfoot a bit too much.

Swiatek’s resurgence makes the 2024 season a very interesting one. How will her rivals respond? We’ll soon find out.